The betting market in this game has been interesting to monitor this week. This line opened at Buccaneers -3, and has flipped back and forth between -3.5 and -3 throughout the week. The ticket splits largely favor the Bucs on both the spread and the moneyline. However, in terms of the money, the Browns are catching the larger wagers. Many books wiped out their 3.5's earlier this week and haven't shown them since, while a few others are still hanging them. This is a key game for the Browns. They will get Deshaun Watson back for their next game, and could be positioned to stay in the playoff hunt if they can steal a win today. The Browns have a lot of winnable games remaining on their schedule against the bottom feeders in the league. We are going to grab the hook and side with the home dogs to keep their season alive.

We like the Broncos to bounce back here coming off of 2 tough losses to the Raiders & Titans. Our numbers suggest the Broncos have the better unit on both sides of the ball. As bad as Russell Wilson has been, we prefer him to Sam Darnold (who has not played since last season). The Broncos injury list is long, but this team should have enough to get this win.

Here we are going with 2 separate half unit bets. Half of our wager will go on the spread, and the other half on the moneyline. This game features 2 poor defenses, and 2 offenses that have battled injuries all season. Our numbers suggest this game should be a true pick em with the Cardinals at home in Arizona, so we see a lot of value here. In terms of the market, the public is behind the Chargers by the ticket count. However, in terms of the money splits, the Cardinals moneyline is catching the large/respected wagers. Kyler Murray is expected to be back at full strength today. We will grab the value on the spread and moneyline for a combined 1 unit.

Our numbers suggest the wrong team is favored today in Nashville. The Bengals will be without 2 key starters on offense for this game (Ja'Marr Chase & Joe Mixon). Scoring against this elite Titans defense could be a tough task with a short handed offense. We've got the Titans defense ranked as a top 5 unit in the league. They are tough against the run and the pass. The Titans also have a strong pass rush, which could be the X factor today. Joe Burrow is playing at an MVP level right now, his advanced passing metrics are wildly impressive. It's always dangerous to fade a hot QB, but our bet is a half unit on the Titans to get this win at home.

We have an ugly starting QB matchup here with 2 backup QB's Mike White & Trevor Siemian. Justin Fields is considered a long shot to play, and the market reflects that, so we will assume he's out for this game. This bet here is all about the Jets defense which ranks top 5 in the NFL in nearly every key defensive metric. Zach Wilson has been terrible this season, so this Jets offense may even get a boost with Mike White under center. FanDuel currently has the last 6.5 in the market, most (if not all) other books are at 7. Our bet is a half unit only.

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