We like this spot for the Browns. They head into Miami to face a Dolphins team that just gave up 252 yards on the ground to the Bears last week. The Dolphins defensive tackling metrics rank in the bottom tier of the league. This is a bad recipe against Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and an elite Browns rushing attack. The Browns will get back a key defensive player this week in Denzel Ward. The Dolphins have two elite WR's (Hill & Waddle) and a dangerous passing attack. It's good timing for Denzel Ward to return to the lineup. The only team that has beat the Brown by more than 3 points this season has been the New England Patriots. Aside from that, this Browns team has played everyone tight. Our bet is one unit on the Browns with the points..

This is a nice buy low spot on a highly disappointing Packers team. As ugly as the Packers offense looked in their loss to the Lions last week, the defense had some bright spots. The Packers allowed just 137 passing yards, and 254 total yards to a Lions offense that has been very good at home. The lookahead line on this game last week was Packers +3. Aside from an injury to edge rusher Rashan Gary, it's hard for us to understand this line moving through 3. We will try to get on the better side of this market overreaction on the Packers ugly loss. Our bet is one unit on the home dogs to keep this game within 4 points.

The Texans have the worst run defense in the NFL according to our metrics. They are also one of the worst tackling defenses in the league. Those are two metrics that the Giants can expose behind Saquan Barkley and their rushing attack. The Giants are coming off of a bye week, so coach Brian Daboll had some extra time to prepare for this game. Our bet is a half unit on the Giants to cover the number.

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