Saint Mary’s looked awful in their final game heading into the NCAA tournament, suffering a 51-77 loss to Gonzaga. That said, Saint Mary’s played 33 games this season, so we feel it’s important to evaluate their full sample size. Saint Mary’s ranks 8th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and inside the top 40 on the offensive side of that metric. They are a fantastic rebounding team, which VCU is not. The strength of VCU is on the defensive side of the ball. However on offense, VCU ranks well outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. VCU is a poor free throw shooting team, and they also turn the ball over a lot on offense (271st in the nation in offensive turnover percentage). This is bad news against a Saint Mary’s defense that is very good at generating turnovers. We will lay the 3.5 points with who the metrics suggest is the much better overall team. Our stake is one unit.

The Miami Hurricanes have one of the best offenses amongst any team in this tournament. They rank 12th overall in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 20th in effective field goal percentage. Miami is fantastic at the foul line (17th nationally in free throw percentage), and they shoot the ball well from beyond the arc (inside the top 50 in three point percentage). The weakness with this Miami group is on the defensive side of the ball, where they rank outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. As for Drake, this team has a very good defense. Drake ranks inside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation. In terms of offensive efficiency, Drake ranks 98th nationally and has been inconsistent throughout the year. This is a spot where many bettors and bracket holders may look for an upset given Miami's struggles down the stretch (2-2 in their last 4). That said, we are going to side with the team who has the far better resume of wins, and the more experienced head coach. Miami has wins against Providence, NC State, Virginia, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, and Pitt. Drake’s most notable wins are Mississippi State and Bradley (who beat them in the regular season). Miami’s head coach Jim Larranaga made an Elite 8 run last year, he’s been to two other Sweet 16’s with Miami, and he made a Final 4 run at George Mason in 2006. Drake's head coach Darian DeVries has done a great job with this program, but has never won a game in the NCAA tournament. Our wager is one unit on Miami to win and advance.

We want to point out three games in particular with Kent State. They played Charleston on the road and lost by 2 points. Kent State played Houston on the road and lost by just 5 points, and then had to travel into Gonzaga where they lost by 7. Despite losing all three of those games, Kent State raised an eyebrow with us by playing competitive with all of those teams on the road. Kent State easily made their way through the Mid American Conference tournament, blowing out Toledo in the finale. On the other side of this matchup, Indiana has a lot of talent, and they grade out inside the top 50 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. That said, Indiana has been inconsistent down the stretch, they've been a .500 team since mid February. Kent State’s defense has kept them in games all season, and that is what we expect to happen here. We will take the +4.5 points with the underdogs for a full unit.

Rick Pitino’s team brings the nations 3rd longest win streak into this match (14 straight wins). That said, the concern with Iona is the level of competition they played within the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. We can’t point out a single notable win, but at the same time, this team didn’t really have the opportunity to show what they can do against top level competition. What we do know is that Rick Pitino's teams are tough to prepare for, he’s had a lot of success in the NCAA tournament. For those who value the KenPom championship criteria, UConn is one of the few teams that fits the bill. They rank 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency. By the metrics, UConn is the much better team. However, getting +9.5 points with a crafty coach like Rick Pitino is appealing. We like UConn to win, but not by double digits. Our wager is a half unit on Iona +9.5.

This is an interesting matchup between two elite offenses, and two defenses that have struggled. Providence ranks 16th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. The downside with this team is their inability to generate turnovers on defense, and how frequently they send their opponents to the foul line. Kentucky ranks inside the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they are also one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation. Kentucky does not generate a lot of turnovers on defense, and often lands in foul trouble. In other words, these teams are very similar to one another. Our numbers suggest 4.5 points is a generous number on the underdogs. Both of these teams have struggled winning games down the stretch, so we will see if one of them can spark a run with a first round win. Our wager is a half unit on Providence with the points. 

This is one of the most intriguing first round matchups. Memphis brings strong momentum into the big dance, they knocked off #1 seed Houston to win the AAC tournament. The FAU Owls won the Conference USA tournament, blowing out UAB in the final game (78-56). Stylistically, Memphis plays at a fast tempo and does not shoot a lot of three point shots. FAU on the other hand, gets about 37% of their total points from beyond the arc (27th most amongst any team in the nation). The key for us in this matchup is how well the Memphis defense defends the perimeter. Penny Hardaway’s group ranks either right around, or inside the top 25 in nearly every key metric defending the three point line. If FAU struggles to hit three point shots, their path to victory becomes very dim. We will lay the 2.5 points with Memphis.

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