We see a pretty big discrepancy between our metrics, and the spread currently being offered by the sportsbooks. The SteadyPicks model suggests this spread should be closer to 7 points, signaling a 2 point edge based on our model. We referenced our numbers to KenPom, who projects just a 6 point win for Alabama, signaling a 3 point edge on those metrics. We tried to find a respected data source that had Alabama winning this game by north of 9 points, and we could not find it. When these situations occur where the numbers check out everywhere, we typically consider raising our stake. However, our concern with Maryland is when they lose, they have a tendency to lose big. UCLA beat them by 27 points, Michigan beat them by 35 points! In addition to those losses, Rutgers, Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana all beat Maryland by double digits. It's also worth noting, these two teams play at extreme opposite tempos. Alabama plays very fast (5th in nation in adjusted tempo), and Maryland plays slow as molasses (320th in adjusted tempo). If Maryland can slow this game down, it will bode well for us getting 9 points. For those who are looking to up the ante a bit, this would be our top play of the day to do so. That said, we will add a little extra sprinkle to our bet with a 1.25 unit wager.

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