We like this as a buy low spot on a struggling Mavericks team. The Mavs have lost and failed to cover in 4 straight games. That said, they played 3 straight on the road, and those games were against 3 of the better teams in the eastern conference (Bucks, Raptors, Celtics). The Mavericks had a day off to regroup, and are back at home in Dallas tonight. The Warriors on the other hand, have won and covered in 3 straight. This will be the Warriors 2nd straight road game. Our data suggests the Mavericks should be favored with this game being played in Dallas. The Warriors lead the NBA in percentage of points scored off of 3 pointers (41.7%). If the Warriors do not have an efficient night from beyond the arc, their defense hasn't been there to bail them out. The Mavericks defend the perimeter much better at home in Dallas. Mavericks opponents are shooting 34% in Dallas versus 40% on the road. The same applies to the Warriors, who rank bottom 5 in the NBA at defending the perimeter on the road. This is the first game all season that the Mavs have been home underdogs. We are going to back them tonight in what should be a competitive game. Our bet is 1 unit.

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