As we head into Conference Championship weekend, there are 2 teams that the betting market looks to have narrowed in on in the National Championship Futures market.

The consensus favorite and last year's champion leads the way. Books have Georgia priced between roughly (-155) and (-180) to repeat as National Champions. At (-155), the books are implying roughly a 60% probability for this bet to cash. 

This 2022/2023 Georgia defense is a dominant unit again this season. However, there has been a drop-off from last season. Georgia had 5 defensive players selected in the 1st round of the NFL draft last year. Georgia broke the all time record for the most defensive players from the same school drafted in the first round. They also had 2 additional players on the defense drafted after the 1st round. That said, the biggest drop-off for the Georgia defense has been in the pass rush department. The #1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft (Travon Walker), and #13 overall pick (Jordan Davis) are hard to replace, even with 5 star recruits stepping in.

This Georgia offense lost 4 key players in the NFL draft. Those losses include WR George Pickens, RB James Cook, and 2 starting offensive lineman. The good news for this Georgia offense is that they had a ton of talent ready to step into these roles. They bring back QB Stetson Bennett, who’s touchdown numbers are down, but his completion percentage is up. The X factor for this Georgia offense is their TE’s. This team has 3 of the nation’s top 15 TE’s on the same roster, led by Brock Bowers. This is a talented offense, who can shoot it out with anyone in the nation.

Coming off of a big win against Ohio State, the Wolverines sit at roughly (+250) to (+300) to win the National Championship. At (+300), the implied probability for Michigan is about 25%. 

This past weekend, we backed Michigan against Ohio State due to their elite defense. This is the best tackling team in the nation by a solid margin, a metric that we value highly here at SteadyPicks. It’s tough to run on this team, and it’s tough to pass on them. The one area that Michigan does not rank within the top 5 in the nation is in pass rush. They lost a key pass rusher last season who ended up being the 2nd overall pick in the NFL draft (Aiden Hutchinson). Our biggest takeaway with this Michigan defense is their performance against Ohio State. We have Ohio State ranked as the #1 offense in the nation, and we’ve now seen that this unit can hold up against anyone. Jim Harbaugh will be looking to make this championship run behind his defense.

This offense is led by Sophomore QB JJ McCarthy, who opened things up against Ohio State last week. McCarthy threw for 263 yards, 3 TDs, and was sacked just 1 time. Michigan hit several long TD plays in that game, which did pad his stats a bit. That said, JJ McCarthy has a 17-2 TD to INT ratio this season. When you combine his passing efficiency with an elite rushing attack, this becomes a dangerous unit. It is worth noting, Illinois defense (which is one of the better defenses in the nation) held Michigan to just 19 points. Aside from that game, this Michigan offense has had no issues doing their part.

Our concern - a poor defense, and a tough game on Friday against Utah. A loss would likely bump USC out of the playoff picture. QB Caleb Williams is fantastic, and this Trojans offense is elite. That said, defensively, this team has a massive drop-off from teams like Georgia, Michigan, & Ohio State.

Our concern - an average defense, and a tough game on Saturday against Kansas State. With a loss, TCU will likely be bumped out of the playoff picture. This team has been a great story, but they’ve had too many close games with middle of the pack Big 12 teams.

Our concern - that they find themselves as the odd man out, and don’t make it into the playoff. If Ohio State gets in, this team has everything you look for to win it all. Elite on both sides of the ball, a star QB and an incredible WR duo. Ohio State may need USC or TCU to lose, which is certainly possible given the tough matchups.

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