Nobody likes to lay this kind of juice, but the books gave us a tough board on this opening day of the divisional round. This is a pure numbers and data driven bet. The Braves have an edge in the starting pitching matchup behind Max Fried. The Braves also have a significant edge in the bullpen department. Both teams hit left handed pitching very well, but the Braves hit lefties slightly better. Everywhere we look in this matchup, the Braves have the edge. It is worth noting that the Phillies beat the Braves in 2 of the 4 games that Max Fried faced them this season. Fried pitched well in 3/4 of those games, but did not get much run support. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has faced the Braves 5 times this season. The Phillies are 2-3 in those games. These teams are highly familiar with one another, and both teams know what to expect within this matchup. Our bet is one unit on the Braves to win.

This bet is a fade on Padres starting pitcher Mike Clevinger, who brings many red flags into this game. First, Mike Clevinger has been poor on the road this season. He has a 5.46 ERA on the road compared to his 2.88 ERA in San Diego. In his last 6 starts, Clevinger has a 6.52 ERA, and he's given up 8 home runs and 21 earned runs in his last 29 innings. To make matters worse, Mike Clevinger has pitched 3 games against the Dodgers this season. He's 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA in those games. The Dodgers have scored 14 earned runs in his 13 innings pitched. The Dodgers have a huge edge in this starting pitching matchup. Julio Urias is 3-0 with 1.50 ERA in 4 starts against the Padres this season. Anything can happen in October, but this game has Dodgers written all over it on paper. We will lay the juice and go with a one unit bet on the Dodgers moneyline.

In this game, we are going to take a half unit flyer behind a starting pitcher that has been a winning machine! The Guardians have won 16 of the last 17 games that Cal Quantrill has started. In his 7 starts throughout September/October, Quantrill is 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA. Yankees starter Gerrit Cole has a 4.50 ERA in his 6 starts throughout September/October. Both bullpens are very good, however, the Guardians will be missing one of their key relief pitchers for the remainder of the postseason. Either way, at this (+180) price, we will take a half unit flyer on the underdogs.

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