UCLA is one of a handful of teams in this tournament that checked all the boxes we look for in a winner. Our first box is whether or not the team is ranked in the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency. UCLA checks this box (12th in the nation via KenPom), North Carolina fell just slightly outside the top 15. The next box we look for is whether or not the team has a top 15 adjusted defensive efficiency rating. UCLA checks this box and ranks 14th in the nation, North Carolina however is not a great defensive team. They are ranked outside of the top 40 defensively, and typically win high scoring games. The third and final box that we looked for was whether or not the team has a coach with sweet 16 experience. Both of these teams checked that box. Ultimately, we are backing what we believe is the more well rounded team overall. North Carolina is hot, but what happens if they shoot closer to their season average from the field tonight? We will trust the UCLA defense here and go with a moneyline bet for one unit.

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