In the first matchup between these teams on February 19th (in Houston), Memphis lost the game 64-72, but covered the spread as a +14.5 point underdog. In the second matchup in Memphis last week, the game went down to the wire. Houston won 67-65, but again, Memphis covered the spread closing as a +4.5 point underdog. Today these teams will play for a third time, on a neutral site, with the American Athletic Conference Championship on the line. The spread currently sits between 5.5 and 6 depending on your sportsbook. One important note to monitor with this game, Houston lost the AAC player of the year Marcus Sasser to a groin injury yesterday. His availability for this game has yet to be determined. Early reports suggest it would be surprising to see Sasser out there today. Houston has a #1 seed locked up regardless of the result of this game. Coach Kelvin Sampson has already stated he will be cautious given the larger goal of winning the NCAA tournament. In terms of the stylistic matchup between these teams, Memphis plays at one of the fastest tempos in the nation. Houston plays at one of the slowest. It’s worth noting, outside of the Temple loss (where Houston played awful), the teams that have pushed Houston have been fast tempo teams. They lost to Alabama (4th fastest tempo in the nation), and as we noted, Memphis played them tough twice. Our model at SteadyPicks projects a victory north of 6 points for Houston. The KenPom model has Houston winning by 8, while some other respected models around the industry favor Houston by north of 10 points. The problem is, most if not all of these models (including ours), are not accounting for Marcus Sasser potentially missing the game. Sasser is unanimously ranked as a top 10 player in the country. His potential absence throws too big of a wrinkle into this game for us to feel confident betting it. Instead, we recommend looking for a live betting opportunity. 

All picks are available 100% free! Simply head to the "Sign Up" page and join the SteadyPicks team.