For anyone looking for a more detailed breakdown of this game, we have an article posted HERE detailing the matchup and the market. 

Before we get into the pick, we feel it’s important to stress how little of an edge there is for bettors on the sides of these heavily bet NFL playoff games. From now through the Super Bowl, these spreads are going to be extremely sharp. Keep an eye out for other markets that are being overlooked while all the attention is on the NFL. That said, we did our best to find an edge here, and we removed all of the biased Eagles fans on our staff away from this pick. This selection is based on the same process that has made SteadyPicks profitable in 16 of the 20 NFL weeks this season.

An interesting factor to consider here, is how long the sportsbook have hung the -2.5’s for the Eagles. Money has been pouring in on Philly all week, yet the books have refused to move this number. They are charging an extra 10% of juice to bet the Eagles at -2.5, and offering the 49ers at plus money on the +2.5. There have been a few juiced +3’s in the market priced around (-120ish), but none of the books have offered a +3 at (-110). In these heavily bet primetime NFL games, the value often lies in trying to grab the ticket that the books don’t want you to have. In this specific game, the 49ers +3 at (-110) does seem to be the ticket that the books don't want in your pocket. These two teams by the numbers rank side by side at the top of the league. The 49ers have won 12 straight, and they’ve given us no reason to believe they are going to hit a wall today. However, with these teams being neck and neck on offense/defense, the two biggest factors become the quarterbacks (where we favor Jalen Hurts), and the location of the game (which is in Philadelphia). Jalen Hurts has struggled a bit against the zone blitz, which is concerning considering the 49ers bring a lot of unique zone blitzes. This was likely a point of emphasis for Hurts and the Eagles offense in practice this week. Brock Purdy has impressive passing metrics under pressure (88.1 passer rating when pressured), but we saw the pressure get to him a bit last week against Dallas. Purdy avoided turning the ball over, but the 49ers only scored 19 points. We believe Brock Purdy has been due for some rookie turnover regression for quite some time now. Through Brock Purdy's 7 games starting, Purdy has barely hit any turbulence. This Eagles defense will be the toughest test yet for Purdy. Rookie QB's are 0-4 all time in Conference Championship games. Rather than laying a juiced -2.5 or getting a juiced +3, we are going to opt for a 1.5 unit bet on the Eagles moneyline.

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