A couple factors pushed us onto the Cowboys side of this matchup. First, there is a narrative surrounding the Dallas defense that our data does not agree with. While the Cowboys defense has certainly dropped off a bit from their elite metrics earlier this season, most of their key defensive players are intact. Cornerback Jordan Lewis will remain out, but everyone else who led that dominant defense earlier this season will play. If you look at the overall adjusted defensive DVOA metrics, Dallas has the 2nd ranked defense in the league (only trailing the 49ers). On the offensive side of the ball, Dallas has the better rushing and passing metrics. The Buccaneers have struggled defending the run throughout the year, so it will be interesting to see how they hold up against Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard. The turnovers have been concerning for Dak Prescott, but here is a stat that is more concerning. Tom Brady has a 44.4 passer rating under pressure, which is one of the worst in the NFL. The Cowboys have a very strong pass rush led by Micah Parsons. Some believe that playing on grass slows the Cowboys pass rush down, but we are not going to take too much stake into that. Tom Brady has also never lost to the Cowboys in his career, and he beat them earlier this season in week 1 (19-3). However, this is a completely new and different game tonight. Dak Prescott was injured during the first matchup. We will lay the 2.5 points with the Cowboys for a half unit.

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