A few key notes in this matchup. First, the Bengals will be without 3 starting offensive lineman (La'el Collins, Jonah Williams, Alex Cappa). It’s worth noting that Alex Cappa is the only one of those players who grades out above average for their position. Jonah Williams & La'el Collins have had struggles throughout the year. While no quarterback wants to lose both of their starting tackles, the data suggests that those two are merely average players. The bigger concern is the depth on the Bengals offensive line to replace these guys, and that is where our red flags go up. Replacement left tackle Jackson Carman has played 39 snaps this season, and those 39 snaps have not been very pretty. At right tackle, Hakeem Adeniji is a 6th round pick out of Kansas from back in 2020. In 361 snaps this season, PFF has a 39.2 pass blocking grade for Adeniji which is an alarmingly low number. Simply put, as good as Joe Burrow and this offense is, the concerns about the offensive line are significant. Burrow has a deadly passer rating with a clean pocket (103.5), so pressuring him behind this thin offensive line will be key for the Bills.

The other alarming part about this game has been the line movement. This line opened up Bengals +4, the public jumped all over the Bengals with the points, yet the line moved toward Buffalo. Throughout the week, the money and tickets continued to come in on Cincinnati, yet this line continued moving toward Buffalo. In a heavily bet primetime game like this, it’s safe to assume that the larger respected wagers are driving this number toward the Bills. Many are labeling this a "reverse line movement" situation, but keep in mind the spread has not crossed any key number yet. A reverse line movement through 3, 6, or 7 is a strong signal, but this line has floated between 4 and 5.5 for the most part. It never moved through any of those primary key numbers (3,6,7). We often joke and refer to this 3.5 to 5.5 spread range as "the gray zone", as bettors often get tripped up with these numbers. Being on the Buffalo side, we want to get in front of the 6 here, as the market looks to be going that direction. Several books have already moved this spread to 6. Our bet is one unit on the Bills to win this game by 6 points or more.

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