This bet is less about the market for us, and more about the matchup itself. The 49ers are a power house by the eye test, and by the numbers. San Francisco ranks 1st in the NFL in overall weighted team DVOA. On the defensive side of the ball, the 49ers are elite against the run, and have a tremendous pass rush. Only the Titans were better against the run this season. Defending the run is key in this matchup against Dallas, who features two talented running backs in Tony Pollard & Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys defense also ranks at the top of the league in many adjusted defensive metrics. However, their defense was trending downward during the final stretch of the season, while the 49ers were trending upward. The Dallas defense looked good last week in Tampa, but the Bucs offense is nowhere near the 49ers. With a fantastic play caller in head coach Kyle Shanahan, to elite weapons (Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, etc.), this 49ers offense is a lot to deal with. Third string QB Brock Purdy has done a fantastic job commanding the offense, and we expect that success to continue. Dak Prescott has had turnover problems all season. While those turnover issues did not appear last week in Tampa, we forecast some turbulence in this game. Dak’s passer rating under pressure, and his turnover worthy throw percentage are both very concerning. He ranks lower than Brock Purdy in both of those metrics. Dak will almost certainly be pressured tonight, so we will see if those turnovers come as a result. We are going to lay the 3.5 points with the home team. Enjoy the game!

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