ODDS: Ferguson -190 (As of Friday 05/08)

I’ll come right out and say it: this line doesn’t make much sense. When we look at Tony and Justins strengths, we see a one-sided story.

Tony Ferguson is a cardio animal. Gaethje doesn’t have the worst tank in the division, however it hardly compares to Ferguson’s. Ferguson is no stranger to long, tough, and intense fights. In fact, its been that way for his entire career. Tony is known for being relentless with his pressure, and always outlasts his opponents.

Gaethje’s last 3 fights ended in the first round. His power, which we’ll touch on later, is certainly a strength here. However, when we look at the length of fights in his career, he has only seen the 4th round once. He was brutally knocked out by Poirier 30 seconds into the round.

Gaethje’s power is fantastic, ranking him among the top power punchers in the light weight division. As I said, he won his last 3 fights in the first round with a knockout. This is where Gaethje will have to win the fight. He’s outmatched in striking, grappling, ground game, and cardio. Gaethje’s power combined with Ferguson’s often risky and unique style of fighting will be his only path to victory on Saturday night.

SteadyPicks will be suggesting clients to heavily back Tony Ferguson on Saturday night. Tony just does too many things better than Gaethje. On their feet, Tony is an unorthodox striker which will give Justin trouble. Tony is lethal off the ground with submissions, as we’ve seen throughout his career. Tony’s cardio is more impressive than a cheetah chasing its prey. The longer this fight goes, the odds of Tony getting the win goes up.

Our Bets: Tony Ferguson -190 & Ferguson to win in Round 3 +700