This total has a big time reverse line movement on it. The public money is backing the over heavily here and expecting a shootout, yet this total has fallen from 60 (where it opened), all the way down to 57.5 at most books. If you head over to FanDuel, you can grab a 58.5 at a good price. That is where our bet is going.

Here we are fading a trendy dog in UCLA. NC State checks a lot of the key boxes we look for in these bowl games. NC State has an edge at QB, a better defense, and the more impressive wins on their resume. UCLA has not performed well this season against teams with a winning record. This bowl season has been very unpredictable, but we like NC State to cover this number.

We should have posted this pick when the line was at -3.5. It has since run to -5 at most books. It sucks to get the worse end of a spread, but this play still has positive expected value at -5. Minnesota's defense is catching a big break with West Virginia running back Leddie Brown opting out of this game. We like a half unit play on Minnesota to cover the 5.

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