This matchup features two of the elite defenses in the country. Both teams rank inside the top 6 in adjusted defensive efficiency. These offenses can expect to have their hands full. A key note to consider in this matchup is the extremely fast tempo that Alabama plays at. San Diego State opened up the tournament against a team who also plays at a rapid tempo (Charleston). They struggled a bit early with the pace, but adjusted well as the game progressed. Having already seen a pace similar to Alabama should be beneficial for SDSU in this game. Another key note we evaluated was how San Diego State’s offense has performed against other elite defenses. They played Arkansas & Saint Mary’s who both had top 15 defenses. SDSU lost both games, but stayed within 7.5 points in each of them. San Diego State also played Boise State twice who had a very good defense. They split those games, but their loss was by less than 7.5 points. The Aztecs have only lost one game since February 1st, which was on the road against Boise State (who was one of the nations best home teams). SDSU has been playing great basketball on both ends of the floor, and this team has a ton of upperclassmen (top 25 in the nation in D1 experience). Alabama is much younger, with multiple freshmen and sophomores getting major minutes. As talented as Brandon Miller is, he’s still a freshman who has never played in a game of this magnitude against a more mature team. We like San Diego State's chances to keep this game within 7.5 points. It will be key for this bet that the Aztecs don’t fall behind early. Their offense is not built to come from behind, so we will hope for a tight game wire to wire.

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