This price is a bit too high for us to pass up on Mark Madsen. These odds imply that the bookmakers give Mark Madsen roughly a 35% chance to win this fight. We see this as much closer to a 50-50 matchup. Mark Madsen is undefeated and has an impressive olympic wrestling background. His striking looked much improved in his last couple of fights. While Grant Dawson may have a slight edge in this matchup, it's not nearly as significant as these odds imply. For that reason, we will take the value on the underdog and root for an upset.

If you're looking for a live underdog, look no further than Nate Maness. He's coming off of a tough loss to Umar Nurmagomedov, who is one of the brightest prospects in the UFC. This will be a more favorable matchup for Maness. Tagir Ulanbekov looked underwhelming against Tim Elliott in his last fight. Tagir is a talented prospect, but we aren't willing to lay (-235) juice behind him in this spot. We didn't get to see the takedown defense from Nate Maness against Umar, as he was a bit outmatched. However, in the fight prior Maness stuffed nearly all of Tony Gravely's takedowns before knocking him out. We saw the toughness and grit of Nate Maness displayed in that Tony Gravely fight. He nearly got knocked out (broke his jaw in round 1), and came back out and finished the fight in round 2. This kid is tough as nails, and at this (+190) price we will gladly take a half unit flyer on him. Maness is the bigger fighter in terms of height and reach. He's coming down in weight to flyweight for this fight.

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