The return of Jon Jones is finally here! It’s been about three years since we have seen Jones in the Octagon (last fought February 8th 2020). For those who are not familiar with Jon Jones, many would argue him to be the greatest fighter in UFC history. While he technically has a loss on his record (Matt Hamill in 2009), don’t let that fool you. Jones was disqualified in that bout, but he absolutely demolished Matt Hamill. Jon Jones has never suffered a real loss throughout his 27 career MMA fights. Our big edge in this bet with Jon Jones is his grappling. We saw Francis Ngannou (who is not known for his grappling) taking down Ciryl Gane with ease. Jon Jones should be a much tougher task to deal with in that aspect. Jones is also a creative and unorthodox striker, which Gane has not seen in his young career. We believe Jon Jones is capable of winning this fight wherever it goes. The three year layoff is the biggest concern. That said, Jones is only 35 years old, and one could argue that given how young he came into the sport, it may have been beneficial to give his body some time to recharge. With an athlete of Jon Jones caliber, we have no concerns about his ability to snap right back into things. Our wager is 2 units on the Jon Jones moneyline.

We will warn you ahead of time, if you place this wager, you’ll be holding your breath until this fight is over. It’s no secret that Cody Garbrandt has had some issues with his chin. He’s been knocked out in 4 of his last 5 losses. That said, Garbrandt did go 5 rounds with Rob Font prior to his loss against Kai Kara France. For us, this bet comes down to who we feel has the superior skill set as a fighter. Cody Garbrandt has lost 5 of his last 6 fights, but let’s not ignore that all of those losses are to extremely high level fighters. This is a big step down in competition. Cody also tried to go down a weight class for the Kai fight, but he has now come back to the Bantamweight division. Trevin Jones certainly has some power, but he does not have many knockouts on his resume. In 24 fights as a professional and amateur, Jones only has 3 knockouts. Trevin Jones enters this fight on a 3 fight losing streak. Both of these fighters will have additional pressure to get a win here, given the recent trend of fighters being cut from the UFC roster after losing 4 straight. We will roll with a one unit bet on Cody to avoid being knocked out, and to get back in the win column. 

Jalin Turner’s 13-5 overall record won’t wow you, but this is a fighter who has really found his groove over the last few years. Since 2020, Jalin Turner is 5-0 in the UFC, with 5 finishes. Not only is he on a 5 fight win & finish streak, but those wins include opponents such as Josh Culibao, Jamie Mullarkey, and Brad Ridell. Mateusz Gamrot is coming off of a tough loss against a very talented opponent in Beneil Dariush. Prior to that, Gamrot had rattled off 4 straight wins, including a win over Armen Tsarukyan. At these (+185) odds, the books imply roughly a 35% probability for Jalin Turner to pull off the upset. We feel his chances are greater than that, so we will roll with a half unit bet on the underdog. Jalin Turner is one of the tallest and longest fighters in lightweight history at 6 foot 3, with a 77 inch wingspan. He will have a big size advantage in this matchup. 

Bo Nickal’s odds should tell you everything you need to know about this wrestling prospect coming out of Penn State. He put on a show in Dana White’s contender series, and tonight he will make his highly anticipated UFC debut to open up the main card. Jamie Pickett had his pay raised to take this fight, which should also tell you everything you need to know about Bo Nickal. A first round submission is the most likely outcome that we foresee. Maybe Bo Nickal lands a clean knockout shot, or uses his ground and pound and we lose this bet. However, it’s highly unlikely that Jamie Pickett makes it out of the first round. This fight should not be competitive for a single moment. We will look for a quick and flashy submission in round 1 from the Pennsylvania native Bo Nickal.

This is our long shot bet of the UFC 285 card. At (+400) odds, we give Geoff Neal a puncher's chance here. Neal is coming off of a knockout win against Vicente Luque, who had never been finished before. Geoff Neal has 85% takedown defense, so if for any reason Shavkat cannot take him down, this fight could get very interesting. Geoff Neal averages 5.2 significant strikes landed per minute, compared to 2.5 for Shavkat. Take those with a grain of salt, as Shavkat is usually looking to take his opponents down, and submit them. Neal missed weight and will forfeit 30% of his purse, but the fight will remain on. We will take a small quarter unit flier on the underdog.