Rafael Fiziev might be the rightful favorite here. However, with a (-245) price tag, the books are implying roughly a 71% probability of Fiziev winning this fight. We have no issues with Fiziev being favored, but a 71% implied probability caught our attention. The market seems to be a bit down on Justin Gaethje after losing 2 of his last 3 fights. Keep in mind, those losses were against Charles Oliveira and Khabib, so we question this negative narrative on Gaethje a bit. Justin Gaethje had an impressive win against Michael Chandler between those two losses, and he was on a 4 fight knockout streak heading into the Khabib fight. In terms of striking metrics, Gaethje averages over 7.4 significant strikes landed per minute compared to 4.8 for Fiziev. Justin Gaethje absorbs more significant strikes (7.85 to 4.86). For us, this bet purely comes down to the odds. We believe Justin Gaethje has greater than a 30% chance to win this fight, so we will take the value with the underdog.

It’s been over 4 years since Gunnar Nelson has won a UFC fight by submission. That said, 6 of Gunnar’s last 7 wins have come via submission. Gunnar Nelson has faced elite competition in this welterweight division, including Gilbert Burns, Leon Edwards, Santiago Ponzinibbio, and Demian Maia. We saw Bryan Barberena get submitted in his last fight, and we have big concerns about his poor takedown defense metrics (54%). Similar to Gunnar Nelson, Bryan Barberena is also very experienced within the welterweight division. Bryan's nickname "Bam Bam" tells you exactly what to expect on his end of this fight. He’s been known to have highly entertaining bouts, so be sure to get in front of a TV for this one. We are going to side with the submission specialist to get the job done. Our wager is a half unit.