In this wager we are backing Rays starting pitching Zach Eflin. At home in Tampa this season, Eflin is 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. In his last 3 starts, Eflin has allowed just 3 earned runs (18.1 innings). The Red Sox lineup has yet to face Eflin this season, which should be beneficial in this first matchup. Boston’s starting pitcher Kutter Crawford went 1-2 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in August (26.2 innings). Crawford has pitched much better on the road this season, but the Red Sox lost both of the games he appeared in against the Rays this season. We don’t typically go against one of our most profitable MLB betting systems (road divisional dogs), but this is a spot where we feel good about the divisional home favorites. It’s always useful to look at the run totals when exploring road divisional dog spots. The lower the run total, the less expected scoring variance. This total is relatively low at 8. Rays on the moneyline is our bet.

This matchup features two of the American League’s best starting pitchers this season. Twins starter Sonny Gray holds a 2.92 ERA (3rd in MLB) and 2.82 FIP (2nd in MLB). Guardians rookie starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has a 3.03 ERA and 3.69 FIP. We have frequently backed Bibee this season as an underdog, and he’s cashed in a good portion of them. This same pitching matchup occurred last week, and the game finished with the Guardians winning by a final score of 5-2. We backed the Guardians through the first 5 innings of that game behind Bibee. This time around, we are siding with the under. Our stake is a half unit.

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