This bet is a fade on Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson, as well as the Diamondbacks bullpen. Starting with Ryne Nelson, the 25 year old is allowing over 10 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout metrics are very low, and his hard hit rate is high. Nelson is a righty, which is good news for this Phillies lineup. The Phillies offense ranks 1st in the MLB against right handed pitching in batting average (.273) and OBP (.343). After Nelson, Arizona will pass it over to their bullpen which holds a 4.35 ERA and has given up 24 home runs already (6th most in MLB). Our model has the Phillies scoring nearly 6 runs tonight, signaling a solid edge on their 4.5 team total. Our wager is one unit on the Phillies to score 5 or more runs.

We like the Athletics side of this starting pitching matchup. Mariners starter Marco Gonzales has not been good this season. He’s allowing an average of 11 hits, 1 home run, and 3 walks per 9 innings (6.10 ERA). Gonzales lasted just 1.2 innings in his last start, allowing 8 earned runs on 8 hits prior to being pulled. It’s also worth noting that Marco Gonzales is a lefty. The Athletics offense ranks top 15 in the MLB against lefties in batting average (.257), slugging percentage (.421), and OPS (.743). Oakland’s starting pitcher Luis Medina is a highly touted young prospect, making just his 4th career start. Medina has improved in each of his 3 starts this season. He pitched 6 strong innings against the Rangers in his last start. The Athletics have the worst bullpen in the MLB (6.62 ERA), so we don’t have much faith in this team once Medina exits. That said, the first 5 innings run line at (+104) caught our attention. For this ticket to cash, the A’s must be tied or winning at the conclusion of the 5th inning. Our wager is a half unit on the Athletics +0.5 run line through the first 5 innings.

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