Cubs starting pitcher Adrian Sampson did not look right in his last start. He allowed 8 hits, 5 earned runs (including 2 home runs) in just 3.1 innings. What's more alarming is that Sampson failed to record a single strikeout, and his hard hit rate has been steadily climbing throughout August. Brewers starter Eric Lauer has been very good at home this season (4-2 2.64 ERA), and he's coming off of back to back good outings against the Dodgers. Lauer shut the Dodgers out and recorded a win in his last start. This Cubs lineup will be a much easier task than Lauer has had in his last 3 starts (Dodgers, Dodgers, Cardinals). The Brewers have the better bullpen and are in the mist of a playoff race. Our bet is one unit on the Brewers moneyline.

Try to hold your nose and your laughter back for this bet. Yes, we are backing the Pittsburgh Pirates who have lost 7 consecutive games. To make matters worse, our hometown Phillies are red hot and have won 6 straight. All this being said, our numbers suggest that Noah Syndergaard does not warrant the price tag he carries today. Syndergaard is 4-0 since joining the Phillies, but his hard hit rate is way up, and his strikeout rate is down. He's faced 4 below average teams in those starts (Nationals, Marlins, Reds, Reds). The Pirates are by no means a big step up from those previous teams, but they do have more firepower in their offense. Pirates starter Roansy Contreras has pitched pretty well in his last 3 starts. He's a talented young pitcher with a live arm. It's worth noting, BetMGM is offering a +2.5 at (-135) on the Pirates. Many of you may find that bet more appealing, but for us, the value lies within the moneyline. We will roll with a half unit flyer on the Pirates.