We see value on the road divisional dogs in this spot. Both of these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Dodgers rookie Gavin Stone has an ERA north of 10 and a FIP approaching 7 in a limited sample size (18 innings). Padres starter Pedro Avila only gave up 2 hits in his last start against the Phillies, but he did walk 6 batters. Outside of the walks, Avila actually has solid metrics. He holds a 2.19 ERA and 3.34 FIP in 37 innings this season. This game has a high total. More expected scoring variance tends to favor the underdog. Every single one of our MLB models has the Padres keeping this game within a score. We will trust the data, and opt for a +1.5 run line bet on the Padres.

This game is certainly more meaningful to the Diamondbacks, who are still in playoff contention. However, we see a clear cut pitching advantage in favor of the Mets. Jose Quintana has a poor record, but he holds a 3.00 ERA and 3.22 FIP over a 54 innings sample size. He has a 1.59 ERA at home in New York. Diamondbacks starter Zach Davies has been bad this season. His ERA is north of 6, and his FIP is in the mid 4’s. Davies ERA sits over 8 on the road. The Mets offense has a top 10 OPS over the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks offense has a bottom 10 OPS over that same sample size. We will side with the better starting pitcher, and the offense who is currently hitting the ball better. Our wager is a half unit.

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