It’s the regular season finale today for these teams. Indiana is coming off of a rare blowout home loss against Iowa (68-90). That said, the Hoosiers are in no danger of missing the NCAA tournament regardless of the result of this game today. Michigan on the other hand sits at 17-13, coming off of a tough double overtime loss against Illinois. With a loss today, Michigan’s chances of making the NCAA tournament will become very dim. Many bettors will be looking to back Michigan in this "must win" desperation spot, but we aren’t so quick to do so. These “must win” spots often fall flat. For example. there were two teams yesterday that desperately needed a win. North Carolina needed to beat Duke (lost outright), and Villanova needed a win versus UConn (lost outright). Both of those teams played at home, were betting favorites, and still fell short. Michigan will have to go into a very hostile environment in Assembly Hall, where Indiana has only lost twice all season. In terms of the metrics, Indiana grades out higher in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. We will opt for the moneyline rather than laying the 4 points. Our wager is one unit.

The Sun Belt Conference tournament is underway. James Madison won a close game yesterday against Troy to advance. South Alabama has won two games in this tournament (Appalachian State & Southern Miss). By the numbers, these two teams grade out very close to one another. KenPom has these teams ranked 97 (JMU) and 95 (South Alabama). These teams played extremely tight in their first matchup this season, South Alabama won 63-62. Our edge here with James Madison should be in the rebounding department. South Alabama ranks 349th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, whereas JMU ranks inside the top 100 in most key rebounding metrics. We should see a lot of second chance opportunities for JMU. In addition, James Madison plays at one of the fastest tempos in the nation. South Alabama likes to play at a much slower tempo and pace. If JMU can dictate the pace like they have in most of their games season, they should be able to pull this one out. We will take the +1.5 points with the underdogs for a half unit.

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