Good morning, and welcome to a new weekly article I will be posting called “Tom’s Take on the Weekend.” Here, we’ll discuss any notable changes, advantage plays I find, or anything else to get your weekend started right. While I host Wake Up and Wager on weekdays, I’ve decided we need to also talk on the weekends. There are many things that change across sports betting markets on Saturday mornings, and my job here is to get you caught up and ready to place some wagers. 

If you’d like to see anything additional featured here, send us an email at tlong@steadypicks.com or, follow me on twitter @tomlong36

On Wake Up and Wager, Ricky and I discuss the importance of line shopping. SteadyPicks is partnered with BetMGM and BetRivers, where we offer exclusive bonus offers. If you like anything that SteadyPicks has to offer, we would be most grateful if you’d consider signing up. It's the best way to support SteadyPicks! I’ll leave the links below, but do consider creating accounts. You’ll want to load them with a few units - this way you always have access to the best lines you can find.

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Recreational bettors will likely not notice the difference and importance of line shopping, and, most of the time the difference between -3.5 and -3 will not matter. However, if you can win one extra game, or push one extra game, every now and then, it will make a long-term difference for your success and bankroll. If there’s one thing I would recommend to a novice bettor to help them become sharper, it’s line shopping.

This is a topic we often discuss on Wake Up and Wager. I personally almost always flat bet - 1u on each matchup. I’d like to recommend that you do as well, to help mitigate risk and keep your bankroll working for you.

Handicappers who use advanced predictive models will often NOT flat bet. Because their model can predict a given outcome, they can often attach a strength rating to each matchup. When you have a system like that, you can use a ‘Kelly Criterion’ model, which suggests different unit sizes depending on the strength of the game. Under this model, you may see a handicapper playing 1.33, 1.64, etc., units on each game. This is because their model tells them to - a model that has been well tested for this sort of thing.

However, over 95% of handicappers do not use a model like this. We still use many other modeling aspects to our handicap, but a Kelly Criterion model is some high-level stuff, albeit not necessarily better. For most handicappers, you will want to flat bet. There is no key difference between a play you like for 1u, and a play that you like for 2u, besides your personal bias. You may think you like one certain game more than another, but where is the data to prove it? Can you provide that? Most times the answer is no - and if so, you should be flat betting.

Now, I’m not saying that you can never, ever break this rule. If you truly feel you have a significant edge, go ahead and place a 2u wager every now and again. 

The caveat to all of this is this : if your unit size is too much, this ultimately all means nothing. A unit should be somewhere between 2%-3% of your total bankroll. This means if you are a $100 bettor, your bankroll should be in the neighborhood of $3,000-$4,000. A $10 bettor should have about $300-$400. There’s no unit size shaming here. The shaming comes when you have over 50% of your bankroll in play at any given time. This is how you ultimately redeposit several times. 

It is a very tough week across the NFL. I’ve heard from many sharp contest players that they will be using their skip week here in DraftKings contests. I can’t say that I blame them. There are many big favorites this week, which in the NFL is very tricky to handicap. Is any team truly 3 scores better than another on any given day?

Remember, these are extra plays outside of the ones I’ve already posted on the My Picks Page. I don’t necessarily recommend a play on these, however this should help you if you feel you have an edge and need some extra advice.

This play is really one of the sharpest on the board for Week 7. This opened at +3.5, and we’ve seen strong public Raiders money. Meanwhile, this line has fallen to 3. I think the Eagles are better than people realize, and at the very least will have a chance to win this game. I had this priced at Eagles +2.

I made a play on the 49ers -4 very early in the week. I thought I’d be getting the best of the number here. It turns out the Colts are extremely sharp. If you play the Colts +4 (or some 4.5’s if you shop around), you’re getting a contrarian angle on a primetime game, as 70% of the handle is backing the favorite. If I could go back in time, I might make a play on the Colts on SNF. I have this priced at -6.5, but the fact that there’s no line movement tells me the books are receiving some sharp action on the Colts.

We’ll roll the dice on another teaser here. Remember, teasers aren't necessarily bad, if you follow a few simple rules. Here, we’re getting 2 home favorites, and passing through 2 key numbers (3 and 7). I’m not quite sure how either of these teams lose in their spots. Many people will also include the Ravens in a teaser, but I do think the Bengals are on upset alert in that game. 

If you listen to Wake Up and Wager, you’ll know I’ve been handicapping Tennis this season. I’ve had good and bad runs, much like any other market, but boy-oh-boy do I enjoy it. There are two matchups here that I’d like to mention, along with my supporting power ratings and numbers:

Cornet has been playing fabulous tennis this hard court season. Her advanced numbers speak for themselves. I’m often low on the American Ann Li, but she’s made it quite far in this tournament. I have this priced at Cornet -165, so there’s enough value for a play.