Good Morning! Last week on our first edition of Tom's Takes on the Weekend, we went 2-0 on our NFL plays we discussed! Not bad.. The NFL will continue to get tougher and tougher, so it's never been more important to do your research and continue betting 1 unit across the board. Let's dive in.

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I've added a section to discuss a betting tip of the weekend. As sports bettors, it is critically important that, much like anything in life, we continue to learn, grow, advance, and continue getting better. That's what I hope to do here. I'll keep these as concise as I possibly can - but the weekend is a great time to sit down and learn a little something.

I wanted to discuss line movement and the misconception that comes with it. Many think the line moves from having lopsided public money. While on very rare occasions this can be true (huge primetime game, Super Bowl, first game of the season, etc.), most of the time the lines are moved by sharp, respected action or bets. Sportsbooks are desperately trying to determine which of their customers are 'sharp' so they can help mold and adjust the line. 

Following the line movement isn't fool-proof, either. Remember some of the very best NFL Handicappers win 60%-63% of the time. No, that's no joke. So even if I'm able to follow his action relatively closely using line movements, I'm still only winning 60% of my bets. And truthfully, that's very, very generous. 

Lines are moved by so many factors, so it becomes a real challenge to isolate the real cause. Is it an injury? A comment the Head Coach made? Maybe people didn't like what Lamar Jackson wore to the press conference? Yes, it can be as trivial as these things. So, you have to be careful not to follow every line movement.

The final layer that I'll add today is arguably the most important. Just because the line moves, doesn't always make it a good bet. Consider the fact that the sharps took action on the play at a better number. How do the numbers work out at the current price? Let's use an example: The Eagles are playing the Cowboys in Dallas. The line opens with the Cowboys as a 3-point favorite. Shortly after opening, this line moves to Eagles +2.5. Clearly there was significant sharp, respected action on the Eagles. The Sportsbooks were out to protect themselves, so they moved the line closer to where the sharp handicappers clearly have this game priced. Now, is 2.5 a good bet? All of the professionals got 3, and now I'm stuck with 2.5? Not all line moves indicate an automatic bet.

For those that don’t know, I am a massive fan of survivor pools and ATS contests. There’s a different level of strategy, preparation, and execution that you just don’t get when placing a normal wager. I’d like to take this opportunity to recommend a few strong survivor and contest plays, as well as discuss normal ATS wagering.

My suggestion for survivor is going to be the New England Patriots this week. More than likely you haven't used them, and I think this will be the best spot to do so. Their ML price comes in consensus around -400. I think it's unlikely that you'll find a better spot for the Pats. Their offensive line may struggle a bit, but Mac Jones looks fantastic and will overcome. I have this game priced at -445, so a significant edge here.

A few other spots worth discussing for today:

I have to discuss the SNF game this week, as it's a big one. This line opened around +4.5, and has since fallen to +3. Even the +3's are starting to disappear, as I believe we have legitimate sharp action forcing this line down. The 3's are starting to disappear, as we begin to see 2.5's. I do believe this is where the line will be by kickoff. My numbers and projections actually have this being a 1.5-point spread, so there's still 'meat on the bone' if you will, as we learned from the tip of the weekend. I'm fairly low on the Chiefs currently, as I think they've played a ton of postseason football, which after a number of seasons, starts to wear on their bodies. Anyway, give me the contrarian Buffalo Bills tonight with +3.

If you listen to Wake Up and Wager, you’ll know I’ve been handicapping Tennis this season. I’ve had good and bad runs, much like any other market, but boy-oh-boy do I enjoy it. There are two matchups here that I’d like to mention, along with my supporting power ratings and numbers:

We've been on Begu throughout the tournament at Indian Wells so far, and we'll continue it here. Her hardcourt numbers over the last 30 days have been wonderful, and I don't trust Shelby Rogers at all. I had Rogers priced at -107, a massive discrepancy compared to her price on the market. This gives us a solid 30-cent edge on Begu. 

This is priced rather reasonably, however I still like Ostapenko here. I have this priced as Ostapenko -137, which isn't as significant of an edge as we normally like. My numbers weigh several different element and stats. I always look over the individual ones to look for a massive discrepancy. Ostapenko has been playing tremendously as of late. Her L45 day ratings are wonderful, and much better than Putintseva. Therefore, I'll take a shot on Ostapenko here.