Good morning, and welcome to a new weekly article I will be posting called “Tom’s Take on the Weekend.” Here, we’ll discuss any notable changes, advantage plays I find, or anything else to get your weekend started right. While I host Wake Up and Wager on weekdays, I’ve decided we need to also talk on the weekends. There are many things that change across sports betting markets on Saturday mornings, and my job here is to get you caught up and ready to place some wagers. 

If you’d like to see anything additional featured here, send us an email at tlong@steadypicks.com or follow me on twitter @tomlong36

For those that don’t know, I am a massive fan of survivor pools and ATS contests. There’s a different level of strategy, preparation, and execution that you just don’t get when placing a normal wager. I’d like to take this opportunity to recommend a few strong survivor and contest plays, as well as discuss normal ATS wagering.

Many players ultimately settled on the Thursday Night game with the Bengals - and what a sweat it was! The Bengals found themselves down 14 at halftime, and rallied at the end of the game to win. If you didn’t select the Bengals, here are some other options for you:

Bills (ML -1150) - This might be the safest play we’ve seen all season. However, many people have probably used the Bills at this point. If you haven’t and you play in a small league, it's probably the play to make this week.

Packers (ML -286) - The Packers will face the Steelers this weekend as 6.5 favorites. This is a great spot to play the Packers with an improved defense against a Ben Rothlisberger who, with all due respect, is a shell of himself this season. 19 targets to Najae Harris is all you need to know about his season!

Dolphins (ML -189) - This play is tough to recommend, but if you’re in a massive league with thousands of players, it might be worth a shot. I have the Colts power rated as an absolute disaster this season. Carson Wentz has proved to be exactly what we thought, and defensively they are struggling. My numbers suggest the Dolphins should be 5-point favorites as opposed to the 2.5-point favorites we see in the market this morning. I’d be doing a disservice to everyone if I didn't mention them here.

As for normal wagering, I’ve found a few decent spots to get involved. All of my current ‘in-pocket’ plays are posted on the My Picks page of SteadyPicks.com

Some other spots I’m interested in this morning, outside of what I’ve already played, are below:

I have a ticket on the Ravens at +1.5 from earlier in the week. I’m adding this in because I cannot recommend the Ravens at their current price. While I do believe they should be favored, you’ve essentially lost all of the value in this game. Denver is one of the few places where a home team in the NFL actually receives 3 points to the ATS number. Many people still believe that all home teams get 3-points, however it’s not the case anymore. While I firmly believe this is a ‘get-right’ spot for the Ravens, it’s hard to stomach all of the line movement you missed.

This line opened with the WFT as 2.5-point dogs. It’s flipped all the way through even money, and then some. I still think a WFT ML bet is a strong play. The Falcons, led by Matt Ryan, are struggling horrifically. You can find them at the bottom of the league in total offensive yards, passing yards, etc. Meanwhile, this WFT front four should cause some troubles for the less-mobile Matt Ryan. The sharps are clearly on this game, as we haven't seen a single bit of buy-back yet.

If you listen to Wake Up and Wager, you’ll know I’ve been handicapping Tennis this season. I’ve had good and bad runs, much like any other market, but boy-oh-boy do I enjoy it. There are two matchups here that I’d like to mention, along with my supporting power ratings and numbers:

My weighted hard court numbers favor Muguruza drastically here. I have Muguruza priced at -155 on my sheet. I played this at -135, and -140 is still a strong price. Remember, we’re using weighted serve and receive statistics, along with weighted Elo ratings on the hard court.

I have Ons Jabeur favored in this matchup. Quite significantly, too. Jabeur is the better server by a few percentage points (based on first-serve points won) and my adjusted hard court rating is several points higher than Rybakina. My eye test makes me a bit nervous, as Rybakina dominated in her last matchup against Belinda Bencic. Jabeur has had an easy path thus far, and should be well-rested and ready to go. I have this priced with Jabeur as the -125 favorite.