Toledo has lost 4 straight games heading into this matchup. Oakland has won 4 of their last 5 games, including a win over Xavier as a +15.5 point underdog. Our angle on Toledo comes on the offensive side of the ball. We see a clear cut edge for Toledo's offense. They rank inside the top 60 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. Oakland ranks 138th in this metric. Toledo is currently shooting 40% from three point range (14th in the nation). Across nearly every key offensive metric, Toledo holds the better numbers. Defensively, Oakland looks to have a slight edge on paper. However, neither one of these defenses are particularly good. Both rank outside of the top 180 in defensive efficiency. Each ranks outside of the top 200 in opponent effective field goal percentage. We will side with the better offense. Our wager is a half unit on the Toledo moneyline.

Make no mistake, this Marquette team looks to be a serious contender. Shaka Smart’s team ranks inside the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Marquette plays at an extremely fast tempo on offense (6th fastest in the nation). If their offense is clicking, Marquette has the ability to run their opponents out of the gym in blowout fashion. That being said, Texas also likes to play this type of basketball. The Longhorns have a talented offense. Their only loss this season was to UConn. Texas might be a step down from Marquette on the defensive side of the ball, but we aren’t so sure that they are 8.5 points apart. This is a true home game for Marquette. KenPom has their home court valued at roughly +3.5 points. That would suggest that this spread would be around 5 on a neutral site. These teams are close enough in our power rankings that we will gladly grab the points behind a Texas team more than capable of winning outright. Our wager is a half unit on Texas +8.5.

This will be SMU’s first true road game of the season. The Mustangs carry a 6-3 record into Tempe. Their losses have come against Dayton, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M. Arizona State has won 3 straight games. Their only losses have come against Mississippi State and BYU. Both of these teams' strengths are their defenses. Arizona State ranks inside the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency. SMU ranks just outside the top 50. Offensively, SMU may have a slight edge. The Mustangs are currently shooting 37% from three point range, but Arizona State is one of the best teams in the nation at defending the three point line. ASU’s opponents are shooting just 27% from beyond the arc. We have ASU ranked slightly higher in power rankings. With this game being played in Tempe, we are comfortable laying the -2.5 points behind Bobby Hurley’s Sun Devils.