We are backing the UC San Diego Tritons tonight. This team plays their home games in one of the most beautiful places in the USA, La Jolla California. They will head north up the coast to Berkeley to take on the 3-7 Cal Golden Bears. This 9 point spread is a bit wider than our model suggests it should be. However, the model does not take into consideration that UC San Diego is playing their 3rd consecutive road game, and just played on Monday. Cal hasn't played since Saturday. They will have a rest, and a home court advantage. These teams grade out very close to one another in our overall rankings. Cal holds a slight offensive advantage, with UC San Diego holding the slight defensive edge. Both teams play at a similar slow tempo. One key for us in backing UC San Diego is their offense's ability to limit turnovers. UC San Diego has a 14% offensive turnover percentage, which ranks inside the top 40 in the nation. They have a 6% steal percentage which ranks 2nd in the nation. UC San Diego held their own against a very talented San Diego State team, losing by just 1 point (63-62). Our wager is a half unit on UC San Diego +9.

This 14.5 spread is a bit too high for us to pass up. Purdue Fort Wayne (not to be mistaken with Purdue University) currently sits at 11-1. This will be their toughest test to date against Pittsburgh. Purdue Fort Wayne has a below average defense, but their offense is very capable of keeping them in games. They hold a 55.3 effective field goal percentage (31st in nation), and they shoot nearly 40% from three point range (16th in nation). Purdue Fort Wayne also ranks top 15 nationally in offensive turnover percentage. Pitt defends the three point line very well, but their defense is well outside the top 50 in overall defensive efficiency. This will be a very good measure of how good Purdue Fort Wayne is. Pitt is not only the toughest test to date, but this is the toughest game on their schedule all season. It’s a big step up for Pudue Fort Wayne from the Horizon League tonight. We are betting that they will at least pass the spread portion of that test. A half unit on Purdue Fort Wayne +14.5 is our wager.

Xavier is off to a mediocre 6-5 start this season. For most programs that wouldn’t be too bad, but the expectations are higher with a high profile coach like Sean Miller. Xavier won 27 games last season, including two wins in the NCAA Tournament prior to being knocked out by Texas. Xavier has some concerning losses. This includes two losses at home to Oakland and Delaware. However, Xavier played #1 ranked Houston extremely competitively (lost 60-66). They have wins over Saint Mary’s and Cincinnati, but this is a big game for Xavier tonight to avoid falling to .500. St. John’s has a lot of hype behind head coach Rick Pitino, but this team lost to Boston College a couple weeks ago. Xavier ranks much higher defensively. St. John’s edge offensively doesn’t look to be too significant. The key strength of St. John’s is their offensive rebounding. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation. It will be crucial for Xavier to limit second chance points. Our wager is a half unit on Xavier to keep this game within 6.5 points.