Penn State has had a rough start to their season under new head coach, Mike Rhoads. The Nittany Lions lost 5 consecutive games between November 23rd and December 6th. They bounced back with an impressive win over Ohio State last Saturday. Both teams have had a full week to prepare for this game, which will be played at Madison Square Garden. Georgia Tech may have a rebounding advantage today, and a slight defensive advantage. However, Georgia Tech’s offense is not good. They rank outside of the top 300 in effective field goal percentage. Georgia Tech shoots 29% from three point range (299th), and they also are a poor free throw shooting team (65% as a team). We see a clear cut advantage for the Penn State offense. Penn State’s defense has struggled this season, but they have done a really good job creating turnovers. They rank inside the top 15 in defensive turnover percentage. Georgia Tech starts 2 freshmen, and they have been susceptible to turnovers. Our bet is on the Penn State moneyline.

This is a semi home game for Purdue. This game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in downtown Indianapolis. Both Arizona and Purdue have elite offenses, so some may opt to stay away from this under bet. Our model suggests this total is a bit too high. These teams both rank inside the top 8 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Arizona plays extremely fast, but Pudue plays at a much slower tempo on offense. These teams have stayed well under this total in the bulk of comparable games against similar opponents. Our wager is on the defenses to show up. Under 159.5 total points for a half unit is our bet.

Creighton is a well balanced team that grades out strong on both sides of the floor. They rank inside the top 25 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. However, they are coming off of a double digit loss against UNLV. Alabama is also coming off of a loss, but it was against Purdue. Bama coach Nate Oats currently has the #1 offense in the nation according to KenPom. Defensively, Alabama isn’t quite what they were last season. That being said, Alabama has played a lot of talented offenses (Ohio State, Oregon, Clemson, Purdue). While Creighton has been very good at home (5-0), the level of competition has been mediocre. Our wager is a half unit on Bama to keep this game within 7.5 points behind their offense.