There are key injuries on both sides of this matchup. The Cowboys offensive line will be without their star left tackle Tyron Smith. In addition, all pro guard Zach Martin is listed as questionable. For Miami, Tyreek Hill is listed as questionable. Reports suggest that the Dolphins are hopeful that Hill will be able to play in some capacity. The Dolphins offensive line will be without their center, a starting guard, and one of their tackles is questionable. These Miami offensive line injuries are a major concern for us for two reasons. First, the Dallas pass rush is elite! Micah Parsons and company will without a doubt be looking to take advantage of Miami’s thin line. Secondly, Tua Tagovailoa has struggled passing when pressured this season. Tua holds a 117 passer rating with a clean pocket. His passer rating drops to 60 when pressured. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has a 95 passer rating under pressure this season. A bigger concern for us is how poor the Cowboys defense looked last week against the run. Miami is one of the top rushing teams in the NFL. If Dallas didn’t come up with a quick solution, they could be in for another long night on defense. The Cowboys got crushed by the 49ers earlier this season. Miami and the 49ers have a similar style of rushing attack. Both teams utilize a fullback frequently. The Cowboys defense ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per carry with a fullback on the field. This is a back to back road spot for the Cowboys. It’s the 3rd straight home game for the Dolphins, who have been at home in Miami nearly the entire month of December. The Cowboys home/road splits are drastic. We are going to lay the -2 points with the Dolphins. Our stake is a half unit.

A lot of bettors are going to gravitate toward the Broncos in this matchup for a couple of reasons. This game is extremely meaningful to Denver who is still in playoff contention. It is meaningless to the Patriots, who are already eliminated. The general perception about the Patriots is that they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Here’s the thing though. The Patriots hold a top 10 defense. New England's defense ranks top 10 in nearly every defensive metric outside of sacks and turnovers. While those are important metrics, consider that the Pats rank top 10 in yards per play and red zone percentage. They rank 1st in yards per carry, 2nd in rush yards per game, and 2nd at limiting explosive runs. New England is also above the league average in pass coverage. The Broncos offense is below the league average in most passing metrics. Denver’s strength on offense is New England’s strength on defense. This should make for a more competitive game than many anticipate. It’s also worth noting that while the Patriots offense is not very good, they’ve been improving over the last 2 weeks. The Patriots are very good when they get down to the goal, and don’t get called for a lot of offensive penalties. We see no reason why the Patriots shouldn’t be able to keep this game close. Patriots +7.5 is our wager.