We have a classic striker vs. grappler matchup in this main event. We saw Mateusz Gamrot struggle against a good striker in Beneil Dariush. Gamrot followed that loss up with a split decision win against Jalin Turner, which many believe was a controversial decision. The key factor in us placing our wager on Fiziev is his 90% takedown defense. Gamrot is a higher level grappler than the other opponents on Fiziev’s resume. However, Fiziev faced Rafael dos Anjos and did a good job keeping that fight on the feet. If Gamrot has trouble landing takedowns, or trouble keeping Fiziev down, he could be in a world of danger on the feet. Gamrot has never been knocked out, but Fiziev will be the most powerful striker he has faced. We see more paths to a victory for Rafael Fiziev, so will opt to back him on the moneyline.

This bet is purely based on us disagreeing with the betting odds. At this (+175) price, the sportsbooks imply roughly a 36% probability of Dan Ige winning this fight. While Bryce Mitchell is the rightful favorite, the gap is too wide for us to pass up. Ige has the better striking metrics, and has a ton of experience against the top tier fighters in the division. Dan Ige has never been submitted or knocked out in his MMA career. Bryce Mitchell carries a lot of question marks into this fight. He took a beating and got submitted by Ilia Topuria in his last fight. Mitchell lost as an amateur to Brian Tidwell, and he lost to Brad Katona on the contender series. Ige trains where this fight will take place in Las Vegas. He has a high level team and a lot of talented fighters in his camp. Bryce Mitchell trains out in Arkansas with a questionable level of competition. We will take a half unit flier on the underdog to win.

To keep this one simple, this is a fade on Mohammed Usman’s striking. Don’t let the last name or the record discrepancy fool you here. Mohammed (the brother of Kamaru) averages less than 1 significant strike landed per minute. To put this into perspective, Jake Collier lands nearly 6 significant strikes per minute. It is worth noting that Usman faced a very good striker in Junior Tafa, and beat him in his last fight. That being said, Usman looked like he was about to get his head knocked off, and luckily was able to take Tafa down and hold him down. Jake Collier has solid takedown defense, and has dropped a lot of weight for this fight. His UFC career may very well be on the line with 9 losses on his resume. We will take a half unit flier on the higher volume striker, who has his back against the wall and needs to win.