All 7 of Chris Daukaus’s UFC fights have gone under the 1.5 round total. Whether he wins or loses, Daukaus goes in there ready to kill or be killed. He’s been knocked out in his last 3 fights, and now he will drop down to light heavyweight and take on a powerful striker in Khalil Rountree Jr. All 5 of Rountree’s knockouts have come inside of 1.5 rounds. The sportsbooks have the fight not to go the distance priced at (-650). To put that into perspective, that implies about an 86% probability of this not hitting the scorecards. Our wager is 1 unit on the fight to end within 1.5 rounds.

This bet is a longshot, but we disagree with the 10% implied probability at this (+850) price. Marcus McGhee won by submission in his last fight, and 2 of his last 4 wins have been via submission. JP Buys is on a 3 fight losing skid. He’s been knocked out in 2 of his last 3 fights. The sportsbooks have McGhee to win by KO/TKO priced around (-145) to (-160) depending on the book. While a McGhee KO does seem to be the most likely outcome, we see no value where it’s priced. JP Buys was submitted via rear naked choke earlier in his professional MMA career, which is how McGhee typically submits his opponents. We will take a flier on the long odds here for Marcus McGhee to win by submission.

Isaac Dulgarian is a relatively unknown fighter who is making his UFC debut. Dulgarian is 5-0 with 5 first round finishes in his professional MMA career. Prior to going pro, Dulgarian went 4-0 as an amateur with 4 first round finishes. Francis Marshall is a fan favorite from the Contender Series. He lost his last fight by split decision, but Marshall has never been knocked out or submitted in his career. We don’t see much value on either side of the moneyline, but this (+650) price on a first round win for Dulgarian caught our attention. We will take a quarter unit flier on Isaac Dulgarian to pull off the upset in round 1.