This matchup features two of the top 15 defenses in the nation. It’s no secret that Alabama’s offense has been struggling this season. Ole Miss looks to have the better QB in this matchup with Jaxson Dart. In a game where Nick Saban knows his offense may be at a disadvantage, we expect him to rely on his defense and run game. We expect Alabama to do their best to keep the explosive Ole Miss offense off of the field. This Alabama defense is going to be a much tougher test than the 3 opponents Jaxson Dart has faced this season. Dart did face Alabama at home last season, but this will be a much tougher environment at Bryant-Denny Stadium. It’s worth noting that according to the resources we use for the tickets/cash splits, about 70% of the tickets are on the over. However, nearly 70% of the money is on the under. The larger wagers look to be coming in on the under. The market has dropped this total by a half point at several sportsbooks. Be sure to shop around for the best number. Our wager is a half unit on under 56 total points to be scored.

Our model has this line projected at 2.5, so we are going to grab the best available on the current 3.5 point spread. It’s possible that Ohio State could catch a lot of public money this week, and maybe 4’s will become available. On the other side of that, if money comes in on Notre Dame, this game could close without the hook. Notre Dame has the better QB in this matchup behind Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman. This season, Hartman has thrown 13 TD’s and 0 interceptions. He’s one of the best deep ball throwers in college football history, which has created an explosive Notre Dame offense. Hartman is a 6th year senior. He’s 24 years old, which is older than several NFL starting QBs. Hartman has a near perfect 155.0 passer rating with a clean pocket, and a 121.5 passer rating under pressure. Ohio State’s QB Kyle McCord has a 44.9 passer rating under pressure. Nearly 5% of his dropbacks this season have resulted in a turnover worthy play. According to PFF, only USC has a higher graded offense than Notre Dame this season. Notre Dame ranks 5th overall defensively, with Ohio State’s defense ranking 1st in the nation. All things considered, Notre Dame looks to have one of the most complete and balanced teams in the nation. This game will be played at Notre Dame Stadium, which will without a doubt be a loud and wild environment for the Buckeyes. Even if the 4’s become available, we are comfortable having the 3.5 points in our pocket at this appealing (-105) price. For that reason, we will go ahead and bet this one early in the week.

The angle behind this wager is Iowa’s defense. PFF has Iowa graded as the #2 overall defense in the nation, trailing only Ohio State. This Iowa defense is elite against the run, and in pass coverage. This defense has a history of tripping up Penn State. This will be a white out game at Beaver Stadium. It’s a conference game with two 3-0 teams who each believe they are contenders. Penn State QB Drew Allar has looked every bit of what he was hyped to be as the top QB recruit in the nation. However, this will be the toughest defense he has played against in his young career. As good as we believe this Penn State team is, we can’t pass up getting 14.5 points behind this Iowa defense. This should be a competitive conference matchup. Iowa’s offense has looked much improved behind transfer Cade McNamara. Our stake is a half unit on the road dogs to stay with 2 touchdowns.