Both of our college football models suggest this line should be closer to 6 or 6.5. Minnesota is 2-0 outright, but 0-2 against the spread so far. Appalachian State had North Carolina on upset alert last week, although the Tar Heels were able to escape with a win. Minnesota has the better defense. North Carolina has the better QB in Drake Maye. However, the surrounding cast around Maye still has a lot of question marks. The 7.5 points is too many for us to pass up. We will roll with a half unit wager for now, and we will monitor the line throughout the week.

We have a huge mismatch between these two teams. The mismatch is implied in the 30 point spread, but we believe there is some value on the road underdogs. Western Kentucky QB Austin Reed led the nation in passing yards last season. He’s a 5th year senior with a ton of experience. While Western Kentucky hasn’t played top tier talent, they rolled both opponents they have faced this season. Ohio State is 0-2 against the spread to start the season. The Buckeyes have a massive game on the road against Notre Dame next week. This may be a potential look ahead spot. Ohio State also may opt to run the clock and get their backups some playing time if the game is out of reach early. We will take a half unit flier on Western Kentucky to do enough to stay within 30 points.

This line opened at 7, and has moved toward Florida all week. Some sportsbooks have already moved this number to 5.5. We highly recommend shopping around for the best line given the discrepancies in the market. The line moved through two key numbers (6 & 7), which is a strong signal on a heavily bet public game. Tennessee won this matchup last season 38-33, but these teams are completely different this season. Florida head coach Billy Napioer has a revamped defense, and brought in a highly experienced QB in Graham Mertz. Napier is 16-3 against the spread as an underdog in his coaching career. He is 5-2 against the spread as an underdog while coaching the Gators. Florida is on a 9-0 win streak against Tennessee when this matchup is played at the swamp. Our wager is a half unit on Florida to keep this game within a score.