Before we get into the pick, we want to thank everyone who has supported SteadyPicks this NFL season. It’s been another fun season. Anytime you finish a full season in the green, always take it in, and enjoy the accomplishment. Betting on the NFL is extremely difficult. A winning season deserves to be celebrated. Whether you made one dollar, or millions, congratulations to those who enter the big game in the green. 

We feel it’s important to highlight that this game is more of an “entertainment” type of betting event. It was reported by Front Office Sports that an estimated 68 million Americans will bet about 23 billion dollars on this Super Bowl. Needless to say, the spreads and totals are razor sharp. The sportsbooks have had weeks to firm up the lines. In our humble opinion, there are little to no edges to be had in this game. It is the Super Bowl though, which is the grand betting event of the year. Our pick and breakdown is below. That said, in a game that looks to be a true coin flip, we encourage you to go with the side that you feel best about in this game.

Let’s begin with the 49ers. Their offense ranks either 1st, or within the top 5 in nearly every offensive metric we look at. The 49ers offense is 1st in efficiency, 1st in early down success rate, 1st in pass yards per attempt, and 1st in red zone percentage. The Niners offense also ranks inside the top 3 in explosive passes (passes of 10+ yards), rush yards per game, rush yards per carry, explosive rushes (rushes of 10+ yards), and goal to go percentage. The Chiefs defense is very good against the pass, but they are allowing over 4 yards per carry on the ground. We have concerns about Kansas City’s ability to stop the 49ers rushing attack. The Chiefs secondary ranks top 10 within nearly every pass coverage metric. Brock Purdy will have a tough task in front of him today. However, the 49ers offense is loaded with elite playmakers. Between Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield, it’s a lot for opposing defenses to account for.

Let’s flip over to the Chiefs offense. Kansas City ranks right around the top 10 in most passing and rushing metrics. Turnovers and penalties were the biggest struggles for the Chiefs offense throughout the regular season. Those problems have not flared up in the playoffs yet, but it’s important to note that Kansas City finished the season 25th in turnovers. They also finished dead last in offensive penalty yardage. Patrick Mahomes does a great job of avoiding sacks despite being pressured. However, he did get hit a lot throughout the year. Mahomes was one of the top 10 most pressured and hit QBs in the league. The 49ers defense ranks 1st in turnovers, and 5th in QB pressures. Mahomes is a magician on the field, and he’s very tough to sack, but we expect the pressure to be there from San Francisco’s defense. One of the vulnerabilities of the 49ers defense has been getting off the field on 3rd down. San Francisco ranks 27th in defensive 3rd down percentage. Patick Mahomes 3rd down metrics are very good. This looks to be a key element of the game.

All things considered, the 49ers rank higher in our overall power rankings. They also rank higher in total DVOA. San Francisco has an edge in the large majority of key metrics on both sides of the ball. We encourage everyone to watch this video below from Billy Waters, who is the Michael Jordan of sports betting.

Billy is siding with the Chiefs, and gives a ton of great insight as to why. In short, Billy summarizes that there are 3 key elements to picking a Super Bowl winner. These elements are QB, defense, and kicking. Billy believes the Chiefs have the edge in all 3 of those factors, and he believes the Chiefs should be favored in the game. It is never ideal to be on the other side of the most accomplished sports bettor in the world. However, we are going to stick with who our metrics suggest is the better overall team. 49ers on the moneyline is our wager. Bet responsibly and enjoy the game!

• 1u - 49ers Moneyline (-120)
• 1u - Over 47.5 (-110)

• 1u - Chiefs Moneyline (+110)
• 1u - Under 47.5 (-110)

• 1u - 49ers -2 (-110)
• 1u - Over 47.5 Total Points (-110)

• 1u - 49ers Moneyline (-120)
• 1u - Under 47.5 (-110)

• 1u - Chiefs Moneyline (+110)
• 1u - Over 47.5 (-110)

• 1.5u - 49ers Moneyline (-120)
• 0.5u - Deebo Samuel TD (+175)
• 0.5u - George Kittle TD (+175)
• 0.25u - 49ers -5.5 (+165)
• 0.25u - Brock Purdy MVP (+220)
• 0.25u - Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120)

• Total Punts Under 7.5 (-142)
• Opening Kickoff- Touchback (-300)
• SF Opening Drive TD (+250)
• KC Opening Drive TD (+250)
• Either Team To Have Successful 4th Down Conversion YES (-385)
• Successful FG Distance Under 115.5 (-102)
• Mitch Wishnowsky Under 56.5 Punt Yards (+120)
• Tommy Townsend Under 55.5 Punt Yards (+120)
• Total SF Sacks Under 2.5 (-225)
• SF No Sack Recorded (+650)
• Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered (-155)
• Patrick Mahomes Under 261.5 Pass Yards (-115)
• Travis Kelce Under 72.5 Rec Yards (-110)
• Christian McCaffrey Over 6.5 Rec. Yards 1st Quarter (-112)
• First Successful FG AFTER 1st Quarter. (-110)
• SF Under 1.5 Sacks (+130)
• Most Sacks KC (-135)
• SF Tackles For A Loss Under 3.5 (-105)
• KC to lose a fumble NO (-155)
• KC to Convert first 3rd Down (-125)
• SF to Convert first 3rd Down (-115)
• 2-Pt Conversion Attempt = YES (+155)