Happy Super Bowl Sunday! We are at the final game of the NFL season. It’s been a great season for SteadyPicks, including a 7-1 run in the NFL postseason. We want to take a quick moment to recap our season to date results prior to this final pick. The SteadyPicks System currently sits at +18.9 units on the season. Our picks have been profitable in 17 of the 21 NFL weeks to this point. It’s important to highlight this today for two reasons. First, if you’ve been playing our picks, don’t be foolish and burn your winnings on the Super Bowl today! There is expected to be 16 billion dollars wagered on this game in the US alone according to the American Gaming Association. With a hold like that, it will be nearly impossible for bettors to find a true edge today. So whether you had a winning year or losing year, don’t expect to flip the script today. The way to win in the NFL is to steadily grind out units over the course of the season, not all in one week. See our week by week breakdown below at the very bottom of this write up.

Now let’s move into the pick. We are going to keep this one simple, and take the team that our numbers suggest is better overall. Amongst the key offensive categories (passing, rushing, receiving, run blocking, and pass blocking), the Eagles grade out higher in 4 of those 5 categories. The one area the Chiefs have the higher rating is passing, where only the Bengals had a higher grade than the Chiefs throughout the regular season and postseason. The Eagles have the better offensive line, the better rushing attack, and the better wide receivers. On the defensive side of the ball, both of these teams have very good secondaries. However, the Eagles have the edge in pass rush and defending the run. 

A few other notes. The Eagles did play one of the easiest schedules in the league, whereas the Chiefs played one of the toughest. Regardless, we don’t see much value in this metric from a betting sense. Weighing out all of the metrics that we use, our model has the Eagles as the #1 team in the NFL. We referenced our model to two other well respected ones. PFF also has the Eagles as the highest graded overall team. Football Outsiders (which has the adjusted DVOA metrics), has the Eagles ranked 2nd overall in total DVOA, with the Chiefs ranked 4th. 

Rather than dig any further, we will leave it there, and side with who our numbers suggest is the more complete and well rounded team. We are going with a 1.5 unit bet on the Eagles moneyline. Enjoy the game, gamble responsibly, and GO BIRDS!

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