We will keep this write up short and sweet. Both of these teams have phenomenal offenses. UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and Miami ranks 5th. However, on the defensive side of the ball, only one of these teams is elite. UConn ranks 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Huskies are arguably the best rebounding team in the nation, and they defend the perimeter extremely well (opponents are shooting under 30% from three point range). Miami ranks outside of the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is very alarming for a team that has made it this far. The Hurricanes opponents are shooting over 51% from two point range (246th nationally). When UConn played Gonzaga, we sided with UConn for very similar reasons. Similar to Miami, Gonzaga was a fantastic offensive team, but below average defensively. Gonzaga's defense caught up to them, and UConn blew them out. This game may be closer today, but we expect Miami’s deficiencies on defense to catch up to them. We will lay the -5.5 points with the far more complete basketball team.

We have an exciting Final Four matchup here between two teams that very few expected to make it this far. San Diego State is representing the Mountain West Conference. This Conference has never made a Final Four appearance before. FAU is representing Conference USA. It's interesting to note, the FAU program had never won an NCAA tournament game prior to 2023. Not only did FAU get their first NCAA tournament win, but the Owls have danced all the way to the Final Four. These two teams may not play in the premier conferences, but each has racked up over 30 wins and proved they belong here. In terms of the path taken, San Diego State played Charleston, Furman, slayed the dragon in Alabama, and then beat Creighton. FAU had a tough first round matchup with Memphis, then played Fairleigh Dickinson, Tennessee, and Kansas State. There is no easy road to the Final Four, so we see no need to measure which team took the harder path. Instead, we will focus on how these two exciting teams matchup with one another.

San Diego State brings in the 4th ranked adjusted defensive efficiency rating in the nation. The biggest strength of their defense is defending the perimeter. Opponents are shooting just 27% from three point range against the Aztecs. Here is a wild stat to consider. Alabama and Creighton shot a combined 5 of 44 (11%) from three point range against San Diego State! That said, FAU is a better three point shooting team than both Alabama (33%, 197th in nation) and Creighton (35%, 99th in nation). FAU shoots roughly 37% from downtown (44th in nation). Our concern with San Diego State is their offense. The Aztecs rank 75th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 223rd in effective field goal percentage. FAU ranks 24th and 25th in those offensive metrics, while still maintaining a top 30 defense. No team in over 20 years has won a championship ranking outside of the top 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Recent history suggests SDSU’s offense is going to catch up to them at some point, and this looks like it could be the spot. FAU is a younger, and less experienced basketball team. Many bettors are gravitating toward all the seniors and upperclassman on SDSU. We are well aware of these age and class discrepancies. Regardless, we will take the 3 points with the more balanced team in FAU.

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