Our bet in this exciting main event is very straightforward. We believe this fight is extremely close to a 50-50 matchup. The books are implying roughly a 42% win probability based on the (+135) odds. The discrepancy in those numbers is our edge. We see a clear cut path to victory for the underdog. Leon Edwards may be the more powerful and technical striker, but Colby Covington is a higher volume striker. Colby Covington averages 4 takedowns per 15 minutes, and holds a big advantage on the mat. Covington has world class cardio, and his southpaw stance presents a different challenge than many of Leon’s recent opponents. We see no reason why Colby can’t win 3 of the 5 rounds given his advantages. Give us the underdog on the moneyline for 1 unit.

The average fight time for Alexandre Pantoja since joining the UFC is about 11 minutes. That number got boosted due to a 5 round decision win in Pantoja’s last fight. Prior to that, he had back to back finishes within the first 2 rounds. One of those wins was a 2nd round submission against Brandon Royval. The average fight time for Royval is about 6 minutes. Since joining the UFC, only 1 of Brandon Royval’s fights has made it to the 3rd round. The pace in the first fight between these two was wild. Both guys went in there with violent intentions, and we expect the exact same approach in this fight. With two dangerous finishers, we feel good about this fight ending inside of 2.5 rounds.

For those who don’t know, Shavkat Rakhmonov is one of the most exciting prospects on the entire UFC roster. He is 17-0 with 17 finishes. This includes 5-0 since joining the UFC, with 4 submissions and a knockout. This looks to be Shavkat’s toughest test to date, taking on the 40 year old Wonderboy Stephen Thompson. Here’s the interesting part about this matchup. In Stephen Thompson’s 14 year MMA career, he has only been finished once. Thompson was knocked out by Anthony Pettis back in 2019. From a striking perspective, Stephen Thompson’s metrics are right on par with Shavkat. Knowing that Thompson is a dangerous striker and wants this fight to play out on the feet, we expect Shavkat Rakhmonov to look to get this fight to the ground, where he can find a submission. Stephen Thompson has 64% takedown defense, and he hasn’t fought many opponents who bring the level of submission threat that Shavkat does. Our thought process with this bet is that Shavkat will either get this fight to the ground and find a submission, or he will grind Wonderboy out over the course of the 3 rounds and win a decision. A knockout is always a possibility with these two fighters, but we like our chances to hit this bet. It’s juiced for good reason. Some sportsbooks have this same bet priced around (-250), so be sure to shop around for the best number.

First and foremost, we love Tony Ferguson. He’s a legend, and a fan favorite for good reason. This is the reality of the situation though. There is a 10 year age gap in this fight, which historically does not bode well for the older fighter. Tony Ferguson has lost 6 straight fights, but those losses were against very good opponents. Ferguson got submitted by Bobby Green in his last fight, submitted by Nate Diaz prior to that, and knocked out by Michael Chandler before that. Paddy Pimblett is coming off of a controversial decision win, but many forget that he was severely injured in the first round of that fight. The injury caused Pimblett to miss a year. Prior to his fight against Gordon, Pimblett had 3 consecutive wins by submission/knockout. Pimblett lost a lot of his hype over the course of 2023, but this looks to be a prime spot for Paddy The Baddy to reemerge as a star. In order to regain that hype, we anticipate Paddy Pimblett aggressively going for a finish. Getting plus money on this wager does raise an eyebrow a bit for us. You would think these odds would be wider given Tony Ferguson’s recent track record. Maybe it’s a sucker bet, but we are taking the bait. Our stake is 1 unit on Paddy Pimblett to win by submission or by knockout.

Brian “Boom” Kelleher is catching a lot of love from bettors in this matchup. His knockout prop has been bet down significantly throughout this week. It seems that MMA bettors have no love for Cody Garbrandt’s chin. The rap on Cody is that the skill set is extremely high level, but he’s alway just a punch away from losing the fight. Technically, that’s always the case in fighting, but even more so with Garbrandt. He’s been knocked out in 4 of his last 5 losses. However, it’s been high level guys knocking Cody out. This includes TJ Dillashaw (twice and while on PEDs), Pedro Munhoz, and Kai Kara France. In between those fights, Garbrandt survived against Rob Font, and he won his last fight against a powerful striker in Trevin Jones. While Brian Kelleher certainly has a punchers chance, we aren’t so sure he will be able to find the knockout. If Kelleher doesn’t find the big shot, Cody Garbrandt should be able to outclass him for 3 rounds. Brian Kelleher has one knockout over the last 6 years. That knockout came against Hunter Azure, who is no longer on the UFC roster. We see far more path to a victory for Cody Garbrandt, and we are comfortable laying the (-185) juice on the moneyline.

Ariane Lipski is once again a popular underdog bet. She’s coming off of back to back wins as an underdog. Casey O’Neill is coming off of a loss against Jennifer Maia where she was a (-170) favorite. That was the first loss of Casey O’Neill’s career, and the market was at an all time high on her heading into that fight. Our feeling is that the market overcorrected a bit too much. Casey O’Neill averages nearly 9 significant strikes landed per minute compared to about 4 for Lipski. O’Neill lands those strikes at a much higher percentage. Casey O’Neill has the better grappling and wrestling. We feel a ground and pound stoppage, or submission is highly possible. For our primary wager in this fight, we will opt for Casey O’Neill on the moneyline.

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