Our wager in this co-main event is purely based on the implied odds. At this (+270) price, bookmakers imply roughly a 27% chance of Matthews winning this fight. Simply put, we believe his chances are greater than 27%. Jake Matthews only losses over the last 5 years have come against Matthew Semelsberger and Sean Brady. Matthews has a good mixture of wins by knockout, submission, and decision. He has a tough opponent with undefeated Michael Morales. We’ve seen Morales get clipped in a couple of his recent fights, his striking defense looks vulnerable. Matthews is the more experienced fighter, and he’s fought far better competition to this point. Our wager is a half unit on the underdog Jake Matthews to pull off the upset.

Credit to Uros Medic for taking on a highly touted prospect on short notice. Myktybek Orolbai is coming off of back to back finishes on the regional scene. However, those opponents had a combined 21 losses. This is a massive step up in competition on short notice, against an extremely talented Uros Medic. The only loss of Medic’s career came against Jalen Turner. Medic knocked out Matthew Semelsberger in his last fight, who had never been finished. We will take the plus money with Uros Medic.

Mick Parkin is one of the exciting upcoming prospects in the heavyweight division. Parkin is one of heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall’s main training partners. He went to a decision in his UFC debut against Jamaal Pogues, but finished all of his opponents prior to that fight. His opponent in this fight Caio Machado has a strong record, but we question the level of talent he’s faced to this point. Prior to Machado’s contender series fight, his last two opponents had 22 combined losses. Our bet is a half unit on Mick Parkin to get a knockout or a submission.

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