Get your popcorn out for this main event. There is a 0% chance of this fight not producing fireworks. We have two of the most exciting strikers on the UFC roster squaring up. While Jiri Prochazka might be the more well rounded martial artist, we have some concerns with him heading into this matchup. Jiri is coming off of an 18 month layoff due to a severe shoulder injury. Dana White has been quoted saying it was one of the worst shoulder injuries he’s ever seen. Many question if Jiri has made a full 100% recovery, or if he is just eager to fight and feels he is healed enough. Only Jiri and his camp know that answer, but for betting purposes, we always like to assume the worst. Another concern we have with Jiri is the damage he takes in his fights. He absorbs about 5.5 significant strikes per minute. If Jiri absorbs 5 significant strikes per minute from Alex Pereira, it might be a quick night at the office. Jiri has been knocked out twice in his MMA career, and in one of those Jiri went out cold. Jiri also said in an interview this week that Dominick Reyes knocked him out prior to him knocking Reyes out. We went back and watched that fight, and Jiri did look to be knocked out by a kick, but luckily fell into a favorable position to regather himself. With all of this being said, Jiri Prochazka’s recklessness and willingness to take damage is too big of a liability in this matchup for us to put our money behind him. When you also factor in the unknown with the injury, we feel good about being on the Pereira side of this main event. Alex Pereira on the moneyline is our wager. 

Picking a side in this fight was a tough decision. These two fighters currently hold the record for the shortest fight time, with both averaging wins under the 2:30 mark. Sergei typically looks for that early first round knockout, and he’s been able to find it in 6 straight fights. Tom Aspinall suffered a serious knee injury back in July 2022. Tom looked good in his first fight back in July 2023 with a 1st round KO against Marcin Tybura. If we felt these two fighters were going to stand and exchange strikes, this would be an easy pick on Sergei. However, Tom Aspinall looks to be the more skilled overall martial artist. Aspinall is one of the fastest heavyweights the division has ever seen, and he’s never been knocked out in 16 career MMA fights. Tom did take this fight on short notice. He was scheduled to fight Sergei back in 2021, so Aspinall did prepare for him once before. We anticipate Tom Aspinall playing this fight safe (or as safe as he can), and using his elite ground game to his advantage. The submission prop for Aspinall has moved from (+550) to (+350) throughout the week. That said, the large majority of Tom’s wins have come by knockout. We are going to play it safe and grab the near even money on Tom Apinall to win.

We anticipate one of the most exciting fights of the night right here. Matt Frevola is on a 3 fight knockout streak. This includes a knockout over one of the most durable fighters in the UFC in Drew Dober. Benoit Saint-Denis won his last fight with a ground and pound TKO. Saint-Denis is a threat for a knockout or a submission. All of his wins have come by finish. It’s worth noting that Matt Frevola has been knocked out twice in the UFC. He has never been submitted. We expect pure violence in this matchup, which is implied by the (-450) price on the fight not to go the distance. A submission or decision would derail this bet. We feel there is greater than a 52% chance of one of these fighters getting a knockout. For that reason, our wager is on either fighter to win by KO/TKO.

In this matchup we are keying in on Viacheslav Borshchev’s 35% takedown defense. Marc Diakiese landed 11 takedowns against Borshchev, and Mike Davis landed 9 takedowns against him. We see a clear path to victory for Nazim to win this fight with his grappling. Nazim has never been knocked out in his MMA career. His only loss came by submission. Borshchev is an extremely dangerous striker. So while a KO would not shock us, we are comfortable laying the (-135) moneyline price on Nazim, who we feel has more paths to a victory.

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