Our angle behind this wager is anticipating some regression from Texans rookie QB CJ Stroud. The Ohio State product currently has 1,461 passing yards with 7 TD’s and 0 interceptions. CJ Stroud and Brock Purdy are the only remaining starting QBs who have yet to throw a pick. The Saints defense ranks top 6 in the NFL in pass coverage. They have a ton of playmakers in their secondary including Marshon Lattimore and Tyrann Mathieu. The Saints defense shutout Mac Jones and the Patriots on the road last week. The Saints offense has all of their key playmakers active (Kamara, Olave, Thomas). We will lay the -1.5 points with the team who we feel is just a slight step ahead. Our stake is a half unit. 

This Panthers team has been brutal for bettors through the first 5 weeks. Not only are they winless, but the Panthers have yet to cover a spread (0-4-1 ATS). Carolina will face the leagues #1 offense this week with the Dolphins. Miami is on the other side of the betting spectrum, having won and covered the spread in 4 of their 5 games this season. For us, this bet purely comes down to trusting our data. Our model suggests that this spread should be close to 13, which is about where it opened. We will opt to grab the extra 1.5 points of value. This spread would allow the Panthers to lose by 2 TD’s (and extra points), and still cover the spread. A few of the Panthers key defensive players are questionable, but their top pass rusher Brian Burns is expected to play. Our wager is a half unit on the Panthers +14.5.

The Seahawks are a popular public dog today. Seattle is coming off of their bye week, and has looked much better than the Bengals so far in 2023. However, the Bengals offense came back to life last week. This will be a big test for Cincinnati to carry that offensive momentum into this game. The Bengals have a bye next week. Entering that bye week 3-3 versus 2-4 would be a big momentum swing for this team. Here is an interesting note regarding Seahawks QB Geno Smith. He currently has a 99.1 passer rating under pressure this season. However, throughout his career Smith has struggled under pressure. History suggests we will see some regression in his metrics. We are going to lay a little bit of juice here to get under the 3. Our wager is on the Bengals -2.5 for a half unit.

We like this spot for the Eagles if you can get a -6.5 or better. While Jets QB Zach Wilson has improved in his recent weeks, he has really struggled when pressured. Wilson has a 47.1 passer rating under pressure. This Eagles defensive line hasn’t generated as many sacks as last season when they led the NFL in sacks with 70. However, the Eagles still rank well above the league average in opposing QB pressure rate. If Philadelphia can use their offensive edge to get out to a lead, it could be tough sledding for Zach Wilson and the Jets offense to get back into the game. Philadelphia is very good against the run, which is the strength of the Jets offense. Jets top cornerback Sauce Gardner has been ruled out. We will lay the -6.5 with the Eagles. Our stake is a half unit.

Hold your nose for this one. We are taking the New York Giants without their starting QB. The Giants are the worst team in the NFL against the spread this season (0-5). Due to that, we feel we are getting a couple of extra points of value. Our model projects this spread around 13.5 points with or without Daniel Jones. Backup Tyrod Taylor started in the NFL for several years. He’s a capable backup. More importantly, Saquan Barkley is expected to return this week. His presence will give this struggling offense a nice boost. Buffalo lost several key defensive players last week (Daquan Jones & Matt Miliano). Their top cornerback Tre'davious White suffered a season ending injury the week prior. We are going to take the 16 points with the road team.