We hate to lay this much juice, but this is a spot where we are comfortable doing so. The 49ers are the #1 team in the NFL by a wide margin according to our power rankings and PFF’s power rankings. The Cowboys defense has been fantastic, but the one flaw they have is defending the run. This 49ers team has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, and arguably the best running back in the NFL with Christian McCaffrey. While we anticipate a competitive game, the 49ers look to be the better team on both sides of the ball. The 49ers went 8-1 at home last season. Our wager is 1 unit on the 49ers moneyline.

This looks to be a good buy low spot on the Steelers in a home divisional matchup. These two teams always play each other competitively. Both games last season were decided by 3 points or less. We expect another grudge match today. The Ravens and Steelers both carry key injuries into this game. For us, this bet purely comes down to the numbers. Our model suggests this spread should be closer to where it opened (Steelers +3.5). We will trust our numbers and grab the 5 points with the home underdogs.

The Patriots are coming off of their worst loss in the Bill Belichick era (38-3). In addition to the ugly loss, New England suffered a couple of key injuries. This includes their 1st round pick rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez. The Saints are coming off of a divisional loss to the Bucs (26-9). The two QB’s in the matchup (Derek Carr & Mac Jones) have both struggled this season. Mac Jones was benched last week. It’s interesting to note that as bad as Mac Jones has been, Derek Carr carries a lower QB grade this season. Carr has a 78.1 passer rating with a clean pocket, which is well below the league average. To put that into perspective, Mac Jones has a 91.1 passer rating with a clean pocket. The issue with Mac Jones has been turnovers. He has 4 interceptions this season. Over 6% of his dropbacks have been graded as turnover worthy plays. We expect Jones turnover metrics to progress closer to his career averages. It’s not common that a QB would take a significant step back in his 3rd season under the same coaching staff. Our wager is on the Patriots to get a much needed win today with their home crowd behind them.

This wager is largely based around the talented Vikings offense. According to PFF, Minnesota’s offense has been more productive than the Chiefs in every category other than RB performance. The Vikings have better passing metrics. They also have a higher pass and run blocking grade, and better receiving production. The Chiefs defense has been a bright spot so far this season, but we anticipate the Vikings being able to put points on the board at home today. Not many teams are capable of winning a shootout with the Chiefs, but the Vikings offense is one of the few that are. We will grab the 4 points with the home dogs.

The Bengals are struggling to win football games this season (1-3). They are 0-4 against the spread. When we dive into the metrics, the Bengals have been bad everywhere. Joe Burrow is struggling when he has a clean pocket and when he’s pressured. The calf injury may play a part. The Bengals defense is struggling in pass coverage and against the run. All of that being said, Cincinnati still has a large chunk of their core players from the last couple of seasons. This looks to be the game where Cincinnati either bucks up and plays well, or it might be time to accept that this 2023 Bengals team is not a good football team. At this reasonable -3 spread, we are willing to take a half unit flier that Cincinnati will figure it out today.