The Colts will be without at least two of their starting offensive lineman in this game. Their All Pro guard Quenton Nelson is listed as questionable. We note this because Aaron Donald and the Rams defensive line generate a lot of pressure on opposing QBs. Not only is Colts QB Anthony Richardson a rookie, but he’s a rookie playing behind a very thin offensive line, with limited receiving threats. The Rams offense currently grades out as a top 10 unit in the league, with the Colts offense ranking well below the league average. We trust Matthew Stafford’s ability to generate points a bit more in this matchup. Our wager is a half unit on the Rams moneyline.

This Bengals offense has not looked good through the first 3 weeks. That being said, the Bengals started 0-2 last year as well. Cincinnati ended up with a 2-2 record through 4 games last season. The Bengals will have an opportunity to do the same this season with a win today. These two teams squared off in late November last season in Tennessee. It was a competitive game, but ultimately Joe Burrow outdueled Ryan Tannehill and the Bengals won 20-16. The Bengals didn’t have Ja’Marr Chase or Joe Mixon in that game. Today the Bengals will have all of their offensive weapons at their disposal. It’s worth noting that Ryan Tannehill has been terrible under pressure this season. In addition to that, nearly 4% of Tennehill’s dropbacks have been graded as turnover worthy plays. The numbers aren’t great for Burrow so far, but less than 1% of his dropbacks have been graded as turnover worthy plays. We expect a competitive game. The Bengals are going to be a heavy public side today. Regardless, we are going to lay the 2.5 points with the better offense, and better QB.

Betting on a team who just allowed 70 points may not sit well in your stomach. The Bears weren’t much better, losing 41-10 to the Chiefs. For us, this wager comes down to the QB position, and the head coaches. Despite the 0-3 record, Russell Wilson looks to be trending upward. He has an impressive 106.3 passer rating under pressure this season. Wilson has a 3-1 TD to INT ratio. Bears QB Justin Fields has a 56.7 passer rating under pressure. He has more turnovers than touchdowns. In terms of injuries, the Bears defense will be without their top safety and cornerback. We are going to side with the experience of Russell Wilson and head coach Sean Payton to get a much needed win against a vulnerable Bears team with an inexperienced QB and head coach. Our wager is a half unit on the Broncos -3.

This line opened Steelers -4.5. The sharp action looks to have pushed this spread all the way down to 3. We held out hoping we might be able to grab a -2.5, but it doesn’t look like the 2.5’s are going to appear. While we are certainly fading a lot of respected money here, it’s important to remember that those bettors have Texans +3.5 to +4.5 tickets in their pocket. Our model suggests the value is gone on the Houston side at a stale 3. The Steelers defense creates a lot of pressure on opposing QBs. Texans rookie QB CJ Stroud has played well with a clean pocket, but he has a 66.2 passer rating under pressure. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is known to give rookie QBs trouble. In Tomlin’s tenure, rookie QB’s are 4-24 against him. We will side with the better defense, and the more experienced head coach. Steelers -3 for a half unit is our bet.