We are going to lay the 3 points with the Lions. Most of the market still sits at 3.5, so be sure to shop around for the best number and price. The Lions will be without 2 offensive lineman, as well as running back David Montgomery. The Lions still have two all pro players on their offensive line. This could be the week that the Lions decide to take Jahmyr Gibbs off the leash. This could result in improved rushing numbers for the Lions offense, despite Montgomery’s absence. Our one concern with the Lions is their defense's ability to stop the run. The Falcons have an elite rushing attack, but a below average pass attack. Falcons QB Desmond Ridder has a passer rating under 40 when he’s pressured. The Lions have a big edge at the QB position with Jared Goff under center. Goff has a 120 passer rating with a clean pocket, and a 80 passer rating when pressured. The Falcons defense has been above the league average against the run and in pass coverage. However, they rank below the league average in generating pressure on opposing QBs. We expect the Lions offense to have enough success for them to win and cover the 3 points.

This might be the square play of the week that gets the public and the sharp bettors beat. Not only do the tickets highly favor the Patriots, but the money is pouring in on them as well. All of the ticket split/cash resources we use unanimously show a liability for the books on this game. We usually try to stay away from these games, or side with what the sportsbooks prefer to happen. In this particular case, we are going to take the bait. The Jets offense has been awful. Zach Wilson is struggling passing the ball when he’s pressured, and with a clean pocket. Nearly 7% of Zach WIlson’s dropbacks have resulted in turnover worthy plays. The Patriots have owned the Jets in this rivalry, so there's extra motivation for the Jets to win this game. However, we simply don’t see the Jets offense having much success. In a game where points should be a premium, we are going to opt for the moneyline at a reasonable (-136) price rather than lay the 2.5 points.

We see value on the Colts side of this spread. The Ravens will be without starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley, guard Tyler Linderbaum, running back JK Dobbins, wide receiver Odell Becham Jr., corner Marlon Humphrey, safety Marcus Williams, and edge rusher Odafe Oweh. The Colts are without their rookie starting QB Anthony Richardson. That said, Colts backup QB Gardner Minshew is one of the best backups in the league. He’s an experienced veteran, who embraces these underdog situations. The Colts defense has a lot of productive players. It would be surprising to see them get blown out. We will take the 8 points with the road dogs. Our stake is a half unit.

The Texans have a lot of injuries to overcome in this matchup. Houston will be without two starting corners, and a starting safety. Their best offensive lineman (Laremy Tunsil) is also out. The Jaguars offense was held to just 9 points last week against a good Chiefs defense. This looks like an ideal spot to bounce back against a Texans defense that has been terrible against the run. PFF currently has the Texans run defense graded dead last in the NFL. The strength of the Texans defense was their secondary, but now a good chunk of that production is out. The Jaguars defense held Patrick Mahomes to just 17 points last week. Dating back to last season, this Jags defense has been much better in Jacksonville. Our wager is a half unit on the Jaguars -7.

A lot of money has come in on the Raiders throughout the week. This has resulted in a big swing on this spread. The Steelers were a 1 point favorite before their offense looked horrific in primetime on Monday Night Football. Throughout the week, this line has slowly made its way all the way to a consensus 3. It’s important to note that the “sharp” bettors or “market movers” saw value on the Raiders when getting a point, or laying 2 points. That value diminished as soon as this line hit 3. In our opinion, there is now value on the Steelers side of this spread. As bad as the Steelers offense looked, it’s important to remember that they still found a way to win a big divisional game. Pittsburgh has played the 49ers and Browns, who look like two of the top defenses in the NFL right now. With a line that we feel is a slight overreaction, we will grab the 3 points with the Steelers.