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SteadyPicks Best Value Bets For NFL Week 1
Steelers vs. 49ers 1:00pm
Steelers +2.5 (-110)
This is one of those spots where the ticket splits favor the 49ers, but the cash heavily favors Pittsburgh. The books are not willing to offer the Steelers with a field goal cushion. Our model suggests this game is a true 50-50 matchup. If you can find a good moneyline price, there may be more value going that route. We are going to grab the +2.5 over at BetMGM and root for an outright Steelers win. Pittsburgh has won their last three week 1 games, and they were underdogs in their last two. Head coach Mike Tomlin does a great job having his team ready to roll out of the gate. Steelers +2.5 is our bet.
(Pick posted 9/10 at 8:52am via BetMGM)
Packers @ Bears 4:25pm
Packers +2 (-110)
We see value getting 2 points in what looks to be a true 50-50 divisional matchup. The Bears are catching a lot of betting tickets, but the bulk of the larger wagers look to be coming in on the Packers. Bears QB Justin Fields will have some new weapons to work with, along with an improved offensive line. However, we can’t ignore that 4.5% of Fields' dropbacks last season were graded as turnover worthy plays. This was one of the highest marks in the NFL. The Packers look to have the better defense, which is led by one of the best corners in the NFL (Jaire Alexander). We will take a flier on the road divisional dogs. Packers +2 is our wager.
(Pick posted 9/10 at 7:39am via PointsBet)
Chargers vs. Dolphins 4:25pm
Chargers -3 (-110)
We kept a close eye on this spread all week hoping to be able to grab a reasonable -2.5 behind the Chargers. It never appeared, and buying the half point is far too pricey for us. The -3 spread creates a slightly less desirable bet due to the higher probability of a push, but we still see some value. Miami was one of the worst pass coverage defenses in the NFL last season. They went out and acquired star cornerback Jalen Ramsy, but he will not be available for this game. The Dolphins will also be without their star tackle Terron Armstead. The Chargers are healthy, which was not the case for the majority of their 2022 season. The Chargers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. We expect them to handle business at home in week 1. Chargers -3 is our wager.
(Pick posted 9/10 at 7:53am via PointsBet)
Giants vs. Cowboys 8:20pm
Giants +3.5 (-112)
The Giants are home divisional dogs against a team who beat them twice last season. This game falls into a betting system that has hit at nearly 65% since 2005. The system is based around teams who are playing at home against divisional opponents who swept them the year prior. In addition to this system, our model has the ideal spread projected at 3. We see great value getting the hook at a reasonable (-112) price. This Giants team is extremely well coached, and they added some good players on both sides of the ball in the offseason. This includes tight end Darren Waller, who should add a new dynamic to the Giants offense. Our wager is on the Giants +3.5.
(Pick posted 9/10 at 7:53am via FanDuel)
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