Yeah yeah, we know, a lot of juice in this bet. This is a rare spot where we see value even at a steep price. Before you write it off as a chalk play, consider that this exact same wager is priced at (-400) at DraftKings. Value can be found on underdogs, as well as large favorites. The implied odds suggest this wager has about a 70% chance of winning. We believe the (-400) odds which imply an 80% win probability are closer to where the market should be. Almeida has seen the 3rd round just one time in 21 career MMA fights. Derrick Lewis hasn’t seen a 3rd round since August 2021. We anticipate Jailton Almeida handling business within 2 rounds. We are comfortable laying a full unit despite the juice.

Prior to tailing this wager, it’s important to be aware that Nicolas Dalby is tough as nails, and has never been knocked out or submitted in his MMA career. Gabriel Bonfim has never gone to a decision, so one of these two fighters will have their streak end tonight. Gabriel Bonfim has finished all 3 of his UFC fights (including the Contender Series) in round 1. He’s been to the 3rd round just twice in 15 career fights. We have a 10 year age gap in this matchup, which historically favors the younger fighter. There is some bad blood here after Nicolas Dalby refused to shake Bonfim’s hand in the weigh-ins. We expect Bonfim to come out and make a statement in front of the Brazilian crowd. Our wager is on him to win this fight in round 1 or 2.

One of the most profitable betting trends in the UFC is the good old 10 year age gap. This trend has over a 60% win rate. Like all trends, they should be used as a reference to go with the many other components of handicapping. Some may remember Denise Gomes from a huge (+1000) knockout prop that she cashed for us in her last fight. Gomes has heavy hands. Her last 2 fights have ended by knockout. Angela Hill is a savvy veteran with a ton of high level experience. That being said, Hill has 13 losses on her resume. She’s 3-6 in her last 9 fights. This looks like a good spot for the younger, and more powerful striker to get the win. Denise Gomes on the moneyline is our wager.

All picks and content are available 100% free! Simply head to the "Sign Up" page and join the SteadyPicks team for full access to everything we have to offer.