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SteadyPicks Best Bets For UFC Fight Night (Vera vs. Cruz)
Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz
Dominick Cruz To Win By Decision (+300)
Marlon Vera To Win By KO/TKO (+300)
In this fight we are going to roll with 2 separate half unit bets. If one of these bets win, we will net a full unit profit. If they both lose, we will lose one unit. For the first half of the bet, we are taking Dominick Cruz to win by decision. The books are giving this fight roughly a 65% chance to go the distance based on the current odds. It's important to know that Dominick Cruz very rarely loses when a fight goes the distance. In 18 career decisions, Cruz has won 17 of those (he's 6-1 in decisions since joining the UFC). Chito Vera has never been finished in his UFC career. Between Chito's toughness and the implied probability for this fight to go the distance, it's a relatively safe bet to assume Cruz's most likely path to victory is by decision. For the other side of this bet, the books are calling for Vera to win this by decision. However, Vera is a dangerous striker and has some big knockouts on his resume. We see a lot more value betting the KO for Vera at (+300), rather than betting him by decision at roughly (+135). For the Vera KO/TKO, head to FanDuel for the best price. For the Cruz submission, head to DraftKings.
David Onama vs. Nate Landwehr
David Onama By KO/TKO or Points (-195)
Here we are opting for a double chance bet over at FanDuel. Be sure to head to FanDuel if you like this bet. DraftKings has this same bet being offered at (-250), and BetMGM and several other books are not even offering it. We believe these are the two highest probability outcomes, and despite the juice this is a fair price. Our bet is on Onama to win by any method other than a submission. Our stake is one unit.
Enjoy the fights and remember to bet responsibly!
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