What a matchup we have here in the main event of UFC 280! Both of these fighters are carrying big winning streaks into this fight. Charles Oliveira has more finishes than any fighter in UFC history. To say Charles Oliveira is dangerous would be a massive understatement. Despite that, we are going to side with Islam Makhachev in this fight. Islam has only been finished once in his UFC career, and it was in his very first fight back in 2015. Our thought process with this matchup is that the path to victory for Charles is an early finish. The longer this fight goes, Islam and his wrestling should be an edge. Ultimately, we see more paths to victory here for Khabib's protege Islam Makhachev. With two very high level and dangerous fighters, it's hard to recommend betting this fight any larger than one unit. Be sure to grab your popcorn and get a good seat in front of the TV for this one!

We are rolling with TJ Dillashaw in this fight for a couple of reasons. First, we believe the books have this fight slightly mispriced. At this (+150) price, it implies that the books are giving Dillashaw roughly a 40% chance to win. We've crunched a lot of numbers, and we've talked to a lot of great resources about this matchup. Everything we have done points to this being much closer to a 50-50 fight. TJ Dillashaw is the more dangerous striker. Aljamain Sterling may have the wrestling/grappling edge, but again, the numbers suggest it's pretty damn close. TJ Dillashaw has an 86% takedown defense rate, and he has never been submitted in his UFC career. We will gladly take the juicy plus money on the underdog here. Our bet is on the TJ Dillashaw moneyline for one unit.

We missed the boat here by not getting this bet in earlier. Less than a month ago, Sean O'Malley was priced around (+330) on the moneyline. The respected money wiped those (+300) numbers out, and now the market seems to have settled here around (+225). We like this matchup a lot for O'Malley. He will bring in a 4-5 inch height advantage, and a 5-6 inch reach advantage. He will be the much bigger fighter in there. In terms of the data/numbers, Sean O'Malley has better striking numbers across the board. He also has slightly better striking defense in terms of significant strikes absorbed per minute. Now take these stats with a grain of salt, as the competition level has been much different for both fighters and we certainly do not overlook that. In terms of grappling, Yan looks to have a decent edge. However, we need to take the grappling numbers with a grain of salt as well. O'Malley has been facing opponents that are willing to stand and exchange with him. Nobody has really had success grappling against O'Malley. Many of his opponents who have tried were knocked out, and we feel that's a real possibility to a path of victory for him here. Yan is without a doubt the more accomplished and experienced fighter, but O'Malley's striking makes him wildly appealing as a big underdog. We always preach not to chase steam, as the value is typically gone once the numbers move. We are breaking the rule a bit here, but with just a small half unit bet. This should be an amazing fight regardless of the result. Be sure to tune in!

These odds feel a bit off in what should be a competitive fight. Katlyn Chookagian is the more experienced fighter. She's fought against much tougher competition throughout her career, and she has rightfully earned her #1 contender ranking. Manon Fiorot has dangerous power with her striking, 2 of her 4 wins have come via KO/TKO. However, if Fiorot is unable to get the finish, Chookagian should have a great opportunity to win this fight on the scorecards. She has edged out decision wins in her last 4 fights. We will take a half unit flyer on the underdog to pull off the upset.

In this fight we are backing one of the best grapplers in the UFC. Many UFC fans and bettors are under the assumption that Sean Brady has not competed since the Michael Chiesa fight. It's important to know, that is not the case. Since the Chiesa fight, Sean Brady competed in two grappling events against elite competition. This includes an impressive win over world champion grappler Craig Jones. If you aren't familiar with Craig Jones, be sure to look him up, he's one of the most accomplished grapplers in the world. To put into perspective how good Craig Jones is, some of the offshore books had betting lines available on the Brady vs. Jones grappling match. Most of these books had Sean Brady as a (+800) underdog, yet Sean was able to get the win. Belal Muhammad is an experienced fighter. He has 16 UFC fights under his belt, and he's coming off of 3 consecutive wins (Luque, Thompson, Maia). Some MMA experts would argue that Belal has the striking edge in this matchup, but we aren't so convinced. Sean Brady had several big knockouts prior to joining the UFC. He hasn't had to use his striking much (given the grappling and wrestling edge he typically has on his opponents), but that does not mean it's not there. Simply put, we believe Sean Brady is better in every area that this fight could go. Our bet is 3 units on Sean to get his hand raised. Enjoy the fight!

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