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Best Bets For UFC 278
Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards
Leon Edwards Moneyline (+300)
Here we have one of those rare situations where the bookmakers are offering a live dog at an absurd price. Based on the implied probability of the odds in this fight, the books are are giving Leon Edwards about a 25% chance to win. All of the resources we use here at SteadyPicks unanimously agree that this line is priced incorrectly. This line has had sharp movement toward Leon Edwards most of the week. At this (+300) price, we will go with a full unit bet. Regardless of the outcome of this fight, you should feel good about the expected value in this bet. It should be a great main event!
Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili Moneyline (-140)
It's hard to bet against Jose Aldo. He's a fantastic fighter, a fan favorite, and he's coming off of 3 straight wins against high level competition. Aldo has been in the octagon with the best of the best, he's got one of the most impressive resumes of all time. However, there are 2 key reasons that we are placing this bet against him. First, we can't ignore the line movement. This line opened as a (-110) pick em on both sides (several books opened Aldo as a favorite). Despite a lot of public money backing Aldo, the sharper money seems to have flipped him to a definitive dog. The second factor in this bet is that we see more potential paths to victory for Merab Dvalishvili. He's a relentless grappler/wrestler and should have an edge in those areas. Jose Aldo has great takedown defense, but this will be a big test against one of the UFC's elite wrestlers. It's also worth noting that Merab Dvalishvili's striking output has been very impressive in his last 2 fights. He landed 178 total strikes (58%) in 3 rounds against Cody Stamann (71 significant strikes). Against Marlon Moraes, Dvalishvili landed 246 total strikes (80%), 69 of those were significant. He also went 4/4 in takedowns against Marlon Moraes. For these reasons, we are going with a one unit bet on Merab Dvalishvili.
AJ Fletcher vs. Ange Loosa
AJ Fletcher Moneyline (-150)
This is fight #2 in the UFC for both of these fighters. Both of them lost in their UFC debuts. After 6 straight finishes to begin his MMA career, Ange Loosa has gone to a decision in his last 5 fights. He fought on Dana White's contender series and lost by decision to Jack Della Maddalena. Ange Loose has lost 3 of his last 5 fights. For AJ Fletcher, he entered the UFC 9-0 and lost via decision to Matthew Semelsberger back in March. Fletcher had a lot of positive moments in that fight, and he should have a nice grappling and wrestling edge in this matchup. Our bet is one unit on the moneyline.
Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold
Luke Rockhold Moneyline (+310)
The elephant in the room with this bet is that Luke Rockhold has not fought in over 3 years. To make matters worse, he hasn't won a fight in nearly 5 years. That being said, let's not forget about Rockholds accomplishments. He has some big wins on his resume including Michael Bisping and Chris Weidman. Rockhold will also be the taller fighter, and will have a 5 inch reach advantage over Paulo Costa. Luke Rockhold's chin has looked questionable over the years. However, if he can avoid the big shot, he has a good chance to win this fight. Rockhold is a dangerous striker, grappler, and wrestler. At this (+310) price, we will gladly take a half unit flyer.
Enjoy the fights and remember to bet responsibly!
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